Speaking to the media for the first time since his ninth inning blowup led to the Tigers' 7-0 loss to the Rays last Sunday, Gregory Soto said Tuesday, "It was just a bad outing. It wasn’t my best day, and that’s all I can say about that."
It was more than just a bad outing. It was Soto's worst outing of the season. Detroit's All-Star closer entered in the top of the ninth with the score tied at zero and left with the bases loaded after walking home two runs. He was ultimately charged with five runs on two hits and three walks in 2/3 of an inning. His ERA jumped from 2.13 to 3.26.
"After the first two outs, the command of my fastball was the problem," Soto said through a team interpreter.
Command has been an off-and-on problem for Soto throughout his career. (So has flat-out control.) It's more noticeable -- and less forgivable -- now that he plays such a prominent role in Detroit's bullpen. Of the 16 big-league relievers with at least 20 save opportunities this season, Soto ranks last in BB/9 (4.4). And he ranks second to last in K/9 (9.3), down significantly from last season.
In theory, a trio of hard-throwing righties pose a threat to Soto in the Tigers bullpen: Alex Lange, Joe Jimenez and Will Vest. All of them have out-pitched him this season. All of them have earned a crack at his job. Still, A.J. Hinch is sticking with Soto as Detroit's closer.
"He’s had these days before where he’s lost his command and control," Hinch said Tuesday. "If we have the lead in the 9th inning, I’m going to give him the ball and he’s going to throw more strikes today than he did on Sunday. That was obviously tough watching him struggle, but we’ve been there before with him.
"The good version is electric, the medium version is electric and the erratic version struggles like most pitchers do. So we'll give him the ball when the game’s on the line and trust that the good version is going to come out again like it has for much of this season."
In strictly a closer's capacity, Soto has been pretty darn good this year. He ranks fourth among the aforementioned group of relievers with a 90.1 save percentage, better than the likes of Edwin Diaz, Liam Hendriks and Craig Kimbrel. Even if he allows it to creak open, Soto almost always shuts the door.
Still, his underlying numbers are concerning. Even with a fastball that touches triple digits, Soto is not pitching like a bonafide big-league closer. He ranks in the bottom 10 percentile of MLB pitchers in walk rate and in the bottom one percentile in average exit velocity. And he doesn't have the exceptionally high strikeout rate to make up for it.
"Quite honestly, I hadn’t looked at (the strikeout rate). To me, it’s an end-all product of if he gets outs, not how he does," said Hinch. "He’s throwing less sliders this year than he has in the past. That’s generally been his swing-and-miss pitch. The velocity on his fastball when it’s where it normally is can still generate some swing and miss, but we don’t want him chasing strikeouts.
"You chase count leverage. That’s something that he struggled with Sunday and that’s probably why he hasn’t gotten the strikeouts."
Soto has indeed cut back drastically on his slider this season. He used it about 37 percent of the time last year when it generated a whiff rate of 43 percent and a batting average against of .138. He's used it about 20 percent of the time this year and generated a whiff rate of 38 percent and a batting average against of .280. The metrics say it has lost both horizontal and vertical break.
Asked why he's used his slider less, Soto said, "I just don’t feel that I have to throw it any specific moment, so I don’t see where it would fit in the game situation. I was using my fastball and getting outs with my fastball (last year). I was using the slider sometimes, but I was seeing the results with my fastball until Sunday when my fastball wasn’t the one."
Hinch took Soto's comments to mean that "he doesn’t feel quite convicted that he can throw (his slider) when he wants to. I think against any hitter in the league he has an opportunity to throw it and it’d be a good decision if it’s set up properly. Again, if you get into count leverage you have a little more room for error."
Of course, Soto's fastball hasn't been nearly as lethal this season either. He's throwing it as hard as ever, but its whiff rate has plummeted from 50 percent to about 28 percent and its batting average against has jumped from .095 to .193. When put into play, it's yielding hard contact well more than half of the time.
All to say, Soto remains the Tigers closer for now. But if the two-time All-Star wants to ward off the challengers, he'll have to dial it in down the stretch.