After catching a few days with lesser rainfall, that changes Tuesday and especially Wednesday.
A front up toward our north - something we've seen far too often this summer- will sink south over the next 24 to 36 hours, resulting in higher shower and thunderstorm chances.
The air out ahead of this front is especially muggy, which makes it easier for downpours to develop. Based on this setup, a flood watch has been issued for portions of Southern Ohio and much of Eastern Kentucky. While a watch isn't in effect for West Virginia, the National Weather Service in Charleston said this may change with time.
While showers and storms look more widespread on Wednesday closer to the frontal boundary, scattered storms/downpours are a good bet Tuesday, too. The Eyewitness News Storm Team has issued a Weather Alert through Wednesday to account for this.
The overall "lift" in the atmosphere Tuesday isn't high, so despite a strongly unstable atmosphere, it looks like storms will be rather scattered in nature later this afternoon and evening. This means there isa chance you may "luck out" (think last Friday) and miss them. Where storms do bubble up, however, they will be capable of producing heavy rainfall over a small area given slow movement and plenty of moisture in the atmosphere. Here is what one of the short-run models thinks the radar may look like around dinnertime. There is reason to believe that places farther north (closer to the Ohio River) and west (into parts of Ohio and Kentucky) may see a few more storms than the rest of us on this Tuesday.
That same model shows all or nothing in regards to rainfall amounts today. Localized 1-2 inches of rain can occur quickly in some of these storms, which may lead to small pockets of high water/flash flooding. Meanwhile, other areas may dodge most of the rain. Don't take these numbers at an exact location to heart, though, as models have a hard time of pinpointing where exactly these storms will set up, but the general idea is there.
On Wednesday, we look to start fairly dry with areas of fog early, but hazy sunshine should boost our temps into the 80s. With even more moisture pooling along and right ahead of the frontal zone, it won't take much daytime heating to get storms sprouting - especially since the upper-level energy looks a little better, too. This particular model shows fairly widespread showers and storms as the afternoon goes on and into the evening. Hopefully, the initial storms would "zap" some of the remaining energy out of the atmosphere for additional ones, but the atmosphere looks to support a bit of "training," the tendency for showers and storms to want to move over the same general area.
Based on that, a fairly broad zone of heavier rainfall can't be ruled out later on Wednesday. Where will this zone set up exactly? That remains to be seen, but areas of flash flooding are possible. Again, don't take these exact numbers at an exact location to heart, but the general idea seems valid.
After Wednesday, it looks a lot better. Models insist on the front being driven south by a strong disturbance in Eastern Canada. As it does, a drier push of air should help us out two ways:
1) A big drop to shower and thunderstorm chances
2) It will feel comfortable
The air looks so dry that you may get some fall vibes, especially at night when temps should dip into the 50s. Throw open those windows. Wouldn't be shocked for a few 40s across the Eastern Mountains.
How long does this last? Most likely through the weekend, but a few showers may try to return on Sunday and especially into early next week. Enjoy it.