It’s early. The atmosphere’s volatile. Things can change. But, holy cow, two Democrats for major offices in a purple state leading Republican opponents by double digits this year? That seems worth a look-see.
Recent Fox News polling shows John Fetterman ahead of Mehmet Oz by 11 points for U.S. Senate, and Josh Shapiro up 10 points over Doug Mastriano for governor.
In both cases, that’s a bunch. And it’s Fox News. Not a source Democrats like or trust (OK, they revile it). So, some likely suspect this is a trap to lull their voters into complacency, and/or fire up the Fox base.
But Fox polls are well-regarded. And other polls show Fetterman and Shapiro leading as well, just not by this much. So, what if?
A double-D win here would be a national bellringer. It would clang in the face of every Republicans edge. From the usual advantage over the party in the White House in mid-term elections, to angst over President Biden’s performance, inflation, lingering pandemic, et al. It would quiet the din about state GOP voter registration gains, and emasculate the “enthusiasm gap” favoring Republicans.
Right now, it just raises questions. Are Oz and Mastriano already cooked? Did voters view Supreme Court rulings on abortion, guns and the environment too far right? Did January 6 hearings hit home and hurt Republicans? Did the GOP choose poorly in picking candidates? And what’s a big lead in August mean for November?
“It just means they’re ahead now,” says GOP consultant Christopher Nicholas, “You have to look at the whole election environment…Republicans are so pumped.”
Duly noted. And even Democratic insiders play down polling at this point.
“It is summer,” says J.J. Balaban, a Philly-based Democratic ad-maker, “and normal human beings still aren’t paying attention. Hard to imagine the Senate race isn’t 5% in either direction, and I certainly don’t buy that Oz is finished.”
Still, the large Fetterman lead is curious. He’s been sidelined since May, recovering from a stroke. He campaigns online, trolling OZ as a rich he-ain’t-from-here Jersey guy, “Doc Hollywood,” or “weirdo who hawks phony diet pills on TV.”
For his part, Oz tags Fetterman as MIA, and runs a daily “basement tracker” claiming Fetterman’s hiding so voters won’t hear his crazy, socialist views.
So far, humorous, teasing Twitter posts beat basement-tracking of a stroke victim, which, sad to say, seems to reflect of the state of American politics.
The Shapiro lead is more understandable. He had no primary opponent. So, he has no fences to mend, no party base to unite. Plus, he’s already spent more than $12 million on broadcast ads. Mastriano’s spent $1.3 million.
Yet, Jeffrey Lord, GOP strategist, PennLive editorial board member and contributing editor to The American Spectator, a conservative online magazine, isn’t feeling any Republican slide.
“Things can turn over 100 times before until we get to November,” says Lord, “The energy level of the Republican base is a real thing that will help Republicans everywhere…I certainly wouldn’t rule out Mastriano.”
Ah, but a double-D win sure seems possible. If only in the way that anything in politics seems possible these days. And it would make state history.
A Shapiro victory would mean three successive Democratic gubernatorial terms. Never happened. Not before governors could seek a second term. Not after the 1968 Constitution Convention allowed it.
A Fetterman win would mean Pennsylvania gets two Democratic senators (Sen. Bob Casey’s current term runs through 2024). Did we ever have two Democratic senators? Only once, in the mid-1940′s, for just two years. Philly Democratic U.S. Rep. Francis Myers narrowly beat incumbent Republican James Davis in 1944 to join Pittsburgh Democratic Sen. Joseph Guffey in Washington. Guffey lost his seat in 1946. Myers lost his in 1950.
Now, next to nobody thinks double-digit spreads in current races last. Real Clear Politics, which publishes the average of all polling, still calls both contests toss-ups. But if Fetterman and Shapiro win? That’s the national political story of 2022.
John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com.
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