As we all know, history has a way of repeating itself and, as it has been said by multiple people over the years, those who don’t know about the past are destined to repeat it.
Well, if history is often replicated, that should be a good thing for Detroit’s Jeimer Candelario, especially after his disappointing first half.
Roto Rage deemed Candelario a potential breakout candidate and the most underrated fantasy third baseman this season after he finished 2021 tied for league-lead in doubles while hitting .271 with 16 homers, 67 RBIs, 75 runs.
That prognostication certainly backfired … at least for the first half.
Candelario finished the first half hitting .191 with six homers, 23 RBIs, 26 runs and .570 OPS, and entered the weekend hitting .212 with 10 homers, 32 RBIs and a .646 OPS. He had nine doubles on the year, which was just 26 behind league-leader Matt Olson. His 10 big flies were the most on the Tigers, but that’s merely a sad fact for a disappointing player on a disappointing squad.
The first-half misery didn’t stop there. Candelario had career-worst marks in walk percentage (6.5 percent) and on-base percentage (.259), and his max exit velocity (109.1 mph) was his lowest mark since 2017.
So, what makes him worth talking about now?
In his first eight games since the break, Candelario was 11-for-28 (.393) with four homers, nine RBIs and a 1.307 OPS. During this brief stretch, he ranked second in the majors in homers, fifth in RBIs, 17th in average, fourth in slugging percentage (.893) and sixth in OPS. Again, it’s a small sample size, but there is reason to believe Candelario’s red-hot start to the second half can continue.
Candelario ended the first half with a .234 BABIP, which indicates he was unlucky. It also supports a second-half rebound. Though his .363 BABIP during this hot stretch is unsustainable, there should be a nice middle ground — especially with Candelario’s expected average sitting at .232 (still not great) and his expected slugging percentage is .407.
Here is where history repeating itself would be a blessing: After hitting a respectable .262 with five homers, 24 RBIs and .723 OPS in the first half of 2021, Candelario excelled in the second half. He hit .282 with 11 homers, 43 RBIs, 38 runs, .882 OPS and 2.4 WAR (the 10th best mark in the AL). During his seven-year career, Candelario has been stronger after the break (.256, 25 HRs, 100 RBIs, .339 OBP, .435 SLG, .774 OPS) than in the first half (.222, 31 HRs, 101 RBI, .310 OBP, .369 SLG, .679 OPS), which should bode well for the rest of the season.
Could this be just a hot stretch for Candelario, who remains available in more than 55 percent of ESPN leagues? Without a doubt. But if history’s repeating itself with another second-half surge, it isn’t a bad idea to hop on board and reap the rewards.
Here’s a look at other surging third-base eligible players worthy of an add:
Arizona’s Josh Rojas is eligible at four positions and remains severely underowned (less than 50 percent), especially as someone who entered Friday with six homers, 29 RBIs, 37 runs, 11 stolen bases and a .357 OBP. He raised his average from .248 entering July to .283 after going 26-for-72 (.361) with two homers, 11 RBIs, 12 runs, six stolen bases and 1.008 OPS in his first 22 games this month.
Another vastly ignored player is Minnesota’s Jose Miranda (12.6 percent). He entered the weekend on a four-game hit streak, which included three straight three-hit games this week in which he drove in five runs. He was hitting .094 on May 18, but raised his average to .281 since after going 52-for-150 (.347) with eight homers, 34 RBIs and a .964 OPS in his next 47 games. In 22 games since June 27, he hit .384 with five homers, 21 RBIs, 11 runs and a 1.067 OPS.
Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm, on fewer than 30 percent of ESPN rosters, entered the weekend on a 13-game hit streak, going 22-for-46 (.478) with two homers, 10 RBIs, 10 runs, just six strikeouts and a 1.174 OPS in that span. He had at least one hit in 30 of his past 34 games — hitting .368 with two homers, 20 RBIs, 19 runs and a .877 OPS in that stretch.
Baltimore’s Ramon Urias (28.8 percent owned) was the most added player in ESPN leagues this week after he hit .354 with five homers, 18 RBIs, 11 runs, 1.013 OPS and a 19.5 percent strikeout rate (well below his 24 percent career mark) in his first 19 games back from the injured list.
Big Hits
Andrew Benintendi OF, Yankees
Came to The Bronx on an eight-game hitting streak, and hit .398 with 14 RBIs, 12 runs, three stolen bases, .457 OBP and .891 OPS in his final 23 games with the Royals.
Cole Irvin SP, Athletics
Has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts this month, going 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA .160 opponents’ average and .431 OPS.
Raimel Tapia OF, Blue Jays
Had at least one hit in 13 of his previous 17 games, hitting .415 with two homers, 15 RBIs, a stolen base, .642 SLG and 1.078 OPS.
Taijuan Walker SP, Mets
Has not lost since June 7, going 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA, 51 strikeouts and .209 opponents’ average in his past eight starts.
Big Whiffs
Kyle Schwarber 1B/OF, Phillies
Hit just .148 with eight strikeouts in his first seven games since the break, and was 12-for-83 (.145) with 33 strikeouts, four walks and .182 OBP in 21 games since July 2. Of his 12 hits in that span, nine were homers.
Nathan Eovaldi SP, Red Sox
Allowed 15 earned runs over his past 13 innings (10.38 ERA) while going 0-1 with two homers allowed, four walks and a .371 opponents’ average.
Joc Pederson OF, Giants
The All-Star last homered on June 25, and had went 11-for-67 (.164) with four RBIs, 17 strikeouts, four runs and a .519 OPS in 25 games since.
Kevin Gausman SP, Blue Jays
Went 5-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 70-6 strikeout-walk rate over his first 10 starts, but is 2-5 with a 4.43 ERA and .330 opponents’ average over his past nine.
Check Swings
- Austin Riley of Atlanta had at least one hit in 21 of his first 23 games this month (including an 18-game hit streak), hitting .413 with 10 homers, 21 RBIs, 20 runs, a .859 slugging percentage and 1.313 OPS. For his career, he is a .288 hitter in July with 22 homers and 56 RBIs. He also has a .602 slugging percentage and .960 OPS, both his highest marks for any month.
- Despite hitting just .245 for the season entering the weekend, Toronto’s Matt Chapman was 24-for-62 (.387) with seven homers, 17 RBIs, 14 runs, one stolen base and 1.255 OPS over his past 17 games.
- Fun with numbers: Aaron Judge entered Friday with 39 home runs in 426 plate appearances. His teammate, Joey Gallo, entered the weekend with 37 hits in his first 273 plate appearances. That’s not a typo, Judge has more homers than Gallo has hits. Just as amazing, Gallo had just six fewer strikeouts (112 for Judge, 106 for Gallo) than Judge in 136 fewer at-bats.
- Still vastly underowned alert: The Cubs’ Nico Hoerner is owned in fewer than 40 percent of ESPN leagues, but entered the weekend hitting .315 with three homers, 17 RBIs, 23 runs, five stolen bases and a .807 OPS in 47 games since June 1.
- Random Brandon Rodgers check in: After he hit .165 with 22 strikeouts in his first 21 games, the versatile Rockies infielder is hitting .305 with eight homers, 40 RBIs, 38 runs and .833 OPS in 67 since games since May 8.
- Fantasy owners should be elated that Luis Castillo, who is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and .187 opponents average over his past five starts (and 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA and .201 opponents average overall), was traded to the Mariners on Friday. Not only does he join a Top 10 pitching staff for a team in the playoff hunt, but he will now call a pitcher-friendly park his home.
Team Name of the Week
You Votto Know
