Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
CATEGORY COMMENTARY:
Jesus take the wheel! This is the hardest category to predict.
It seems so evenly split based on conversations with voters. Angela Bassett’s Queen Ramonda for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” looked to have this wrapped up with Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins. That is until Kerry Condon’s Siobhan from “The Banshees of Inisherin” took BAFTA, and Jamie Lee Curtis’ Deidre from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” walked away with SAG.
And don’t let pundits fool you into thinking if Curtis wins, that automatically means her co-star Michelle Yeoh is taking home the lead actress statue. There’s a fundamental difference between being part of a three-horse race like this one versus a head-to-head battle that Yeoh faces.
Condon and Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere”) seem to be what I call the “purity” selections of the category. I believe the margins are so razor thin in this race that even Hsu poses a possibility to upset (she’s long been my favorite).
In this new era of preferential ballots, international and younger Academy members have exercised a “spread the love” mentality, resisting the urge to go down the line for a movie in every category it’s nominated. Only two best picture winners have demonstrated this since 2009 taking home five or more statuettes. A helpful tool I’ve used is “traveling down the ballot” — reviewing the order in which an Academy member votes in the categories. That’s what I’m using to pick Condon.
Will Win: Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Should Win: Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Should have been here: Dolly De Leon, “Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story" (20th Century Studios)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.