The shortstop market is going to be an interesting one to watch this offseason.
After hitting free agency last season, Carlos Correa is likely to be available again this offseason. Xander Bogaerts likewise is expected to opt out of his contract and become a free agent, while Trea Turner also is set to become available.
They’ll represent the top options at the position, but Dansby Swanson is a quality option for teams with a need at the position who are willing to spend but don't want to break that bank. He can provide quality defense and a bat with some pop, but his price tag should come in well under what someone like Correa will fetch.
Last offseason saw the emotional departure of Freddie Freeman from Atlanta, and while Swanson is not the franchise cornerstone Freeman was, he would be another tough player to lose. But in order to keep him, it’s probably going to take a pretty substantial financial commitment from the Braves.
“I need to see the rest of the season,” MLB insider Ken Rosenthal responded when asked on “The Athletic Baseball Show” podcast if Swanson could land a contract similar to the one Marcus Semien got with the Texas Rangers. “Because Dansby Swanson, as good a first half as he’s had, has always been a streaky hitter. He had that horrible April, then he made a mechanical adjustment, figured it out and boom, took off like really never before. I love him as a player, he’s a winning player, we’ve seen that. You can win a World Series with Dansby Swanson, it’s been done.
“Now, he’ll be a free agent entering his age-29 season, Semien was entering his age-31 season as a second baseman at that point and he got seven years, $175 million. If I had to guess now, and guessing free agent numbers is not my specialty, I would say that’s the range: Seven years and 175 (million)."
Semien, at the time he signed his deal, had just had a huge 2021 season as the second baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays. That success, coupled with his more demonstrated track record than Swanson, might be what keeps the Braves shortstop’s dollar value a little lower.
“He’s not quite what Semien was. Semien had two monster years (2019 and 2021) …,” Rosenthal said. “This would be, if Dansby can finish it off, really his first year at that kind of level. … So I would think he would be kind of in that range. I don’t see him as a $200 million guy, I might be wrong about that, some team might do it. But with the competition that he’s going to face – Bogaerts and Correa if they opt out and Trea Turner as a pure free agent – I don’t know that he gets to $200 million. But he’s certainly going to do really well and should do really well."
It’ll be fascinating to see how Swanson’s market plays out in the offseason. Perhaps he’ll try to sign quickly and be one of the first dominos to fall. He also could wait things out in hopes of the top dogs getting huge deals that could help set a high bar for him, even as the more “cost-effective” option at the position.
The Braves have potential in-house options, though, which ultimately might make signing Swanson to a huge deal less palatable. Braden Shewmake, the Braves’ No. 3 prospect, is in Triple-A and knocking on the door to the big leagues. He’s proven in the minors that he can stick at shortstop, and Atlanta’s level of confidence in his ability to make the jump to the bigs ultimately could dictate the path with Swanson.
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