ESPN FPI Predicts Every Game on BYU's 2022 Schedule
While all eyes of the college football world are monitoring the current round of conference realignment, the 2022 season is quietly inching closer. This week, ESPN updated its FPI predictions for the upcoming college football season. BYU, who returns more experience than any roster in the country, is expected to go 7-5 according to FPI. The individual win probabilities for each game are found below.
September 3rd - @ USF Bulls
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 64.8%
BYU's opener against USF in September will be a battle of the two most experienced teams in the country. Last week, ESPN's Bill Connelly updated his annual returning production rankings - BYU and USF ranked first and second in the country, respectively.
BYU should be favored in this game. The Cougars handled USF last year in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score. However, traveling to Florida has always been a challenge for the BYU football program. USF has added a few key additions from the transfer portal, most notably former Baylor quarterback Gary Bohanon.
This game could be closer than most anticipate. A 65% win probability is in the right ballpark, but 75% feels closer to reality.
September 10th - vs Baylor Bears
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 42.8%
Last year, BYU traveled to Waco and lost 38-24. The Bears pounded the ball on the ground, and the Cougars had no response defensively; Baylor ran for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. Baylor would go on to win the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl.
BYU's defensive line had been decimated by injuries by the time BYU played Baylor last season. In September, we'll learn if a healthier defensive line will be capable of stopping Baylor's rushing attack.
Baylor returns only 45% of its production from last season, that ranks 126th out 131 FBS teams.
September 17th - @ Oregon Ducks
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 25.9%
A road game at Oregon is the second most difficult game on BYU's schedule according to FPI. FPI gives the Cougars a 26% chance to pull off the road upset.
The Ducks will be replacing 2021 starting quarterback Anthony Brown this season. Former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix transferred to Oregon after last season and is a candidate to replace Brown. Nix is competing against Ty Thompson and Jay Butterfield for the starting job.
Oregon boasts one of the best offensive lines in college football. If BYU is going to pull off the upset, containing the Ducks' rushing attack will be imperative.
September 24th - vs Wyoming Cowboys
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 86.6%
BYU will host Wyoming in a battle of former conference foes. The Cowboys lost multiple contributors to the transfer portal, and the Cougars should be heavily favored in this game.
September 29th - vs Utah State Aggies
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 82.0%
BYU will host in-state rival Utah State on a Thursday night. The Aggies lose a lot of production from last year's team that won the Mountain West. FPI set BYU's win probability at 82%, that feels about right.
October 8th - vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (neutral site in Las Vegas)
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 18.4%
The most difficult game on BYU's schedule according to ESPN FPI. BYU will travel to Las Vegas to take on Notre Dame in Allegiant Stadium. This game is part of Notre Dame's annual Shamrock Series, so Notre Dame will be considered the home team.
Like Baylor and Oregon, Notre Dame features one of the best offensive line units in the country. BYU's defensive line and linebackers will be tested in the first half of the season.
October 15th - vs Arkansas Razorbacks
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 46.4%
BYU will face off against an SEC opponent in Lavell Edwards Stadium for the first time since Mississippi State in 2016. The Razorbacks have been on the rise as a program and they have SEC talent throughout the roster. FPI thinks this game is a tossup and gives BYU a 46.4% chance to win.
October 22nd - @ Liberty Flames
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 58.1%
BYU will be playing its eighth game in eight weeks when it travels across the country to take on Liberty. FPI has BYU as only a slight favorite with a 58% chance to win. The Flames are tasked with replacing 2022 NFL Draft pick Malik Willis at quarterback. Charlie Brewer, who started for Utah at quarterback last September when they lost to BYU, transferred to Liberty and is expected to compete for the starting job.
October 28th - vs East Carolina Pirates
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 80.0%
This season, BYU will have the opportunity to avenge a 2017 loss at East Carolina. FPI lists BYU as a heavy favorite with an 80% chance to win.
November 5th - @ Boise State Broncos
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 43.0%
Speaking of revenge, BYU will travel to Boise to take on the Broncos in a game that could avenge last year's loss in Provo. That loss to Boise State arguably kept BYU out of a NY6 Bowl. This game could be the final chapter of a decade-long rivalry. Earlier this year, BYU cancelled its future games with the Broncos as it prepares to enter the Big 12 in 2023.
FPI gives the Broncos the slight edge with a 57% chance to win.
November 19th - vs Utah Tech Trailblazers
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 99.7%
Utah Tech, formerly known as Dixie State, travels to Provo in late November.
November 26th - @ Stanford Cardinal
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 52.9%
A regular season finale at Stanford will wrap up BYU's 2022 slate. Stanford was downright bad last season, but the Cardinal has the talent to rebound in 2022. FPI's way-too-early prediction for this game is a tossup with BYU having a 53% chance to win.
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