If the ACC disbands, where does that leave NC State football?

It would seem the Atlantic Coast Conference is nearing its end, or at least on its way to a shakeup that could lead to a mass exodus from the league.

The first indication of the superconference era was last summer after Big 12 powers Texas and Oklahoma agreed to split for the more lucrative Southeast Conference. Last week's announcement that UCLA and Southern California would leave the Pacific-12 Conference and join the Big Ten in 2024 signaled an even greater seismic disturbance on the college football Richter scale.

The Power Five has quickly become the Power Two with the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC falling well behind in terms of marketable teams and incoming profit. CBS Sports reported on Tuesday that the ACC and Pac-12 had discussed a "loose partnership" that could end the season with a championship game in Las Vegas between the two conferences. 

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A "loose partnership" didn't work out so well for either conference after forming the now-dead 'alliance' with the Big Ten last year. 

The ACC grant of rights agreement that runs through 2036 —  first signed to stop programs from leaving after Maryland left for the Big Ten in 2013 — will only help for so long, especially if schools find a legal way around it. The Big Ten and the SEC will both come calling, and ACC programs will likely find it too tempting, and profitable to stay put. 

So what does this mean for NC State football? Where does the Wolfpack fit in the college football landscape if the ACC falls apart? What would be the best fit?

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NC State to the SEC?

Here's the unfortunate truth, NC State football, by itself, is not the sexiest addition for either the SEC or the Big Ten. 

The ACC has much stronger brand names like Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Wolfpack fans will hate to hear it but, UNC. The best bet is to get involved with a package deal that includes some of the more high-profile teams in the ACC. 

NC State could be a natural fit in the SEC.

The football team has a fan base that rivals the passion of many SEC programs and that travels well. NC State would provide the SEC its first foothold in North Carolina, which neighbors three SEC states in Georgia, Tennesee, and South Carolina. It may not be as big of a get as Texas A&M, which opened the door to the Lone Star State's best recruits, but it would help the SEC solidify its recruiting chokehold of the South. 

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"I think the SEC would be an ideal outcome for them," said Blake Toppmeyer, SEC Columnist for the USA TODAY Network. "But knowing how the SEC has done its moves in the past, I think NC State would be no more than middle of the pack in terms of the SEC interest."

The SEC, with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma in 2024 or 2025, would have 16 teams. Toppmeyer said the conference would likely add four teams before trying to expand to 24. 

"It's a matter of how big they (the SEC) want to get," he said. "If they want to get to 20, NC State is a non-starter, but if they want to get to 24, then maybe."

If history is a guide, the SEC has added teams in pairs: Arkansas, South Carolina in 1991, Missouri, Texas A&M in 2011 and Texas, Oklahoma last summer. 

"The (SEC's) next move will probably be a smaller bite," Toppmeyer said. "I don't see them leaping from 16 to 24 that quickly."

NC State has had plenty of success in other sports over the past decade: two appearances in the College World Series and a top-five women's basketball team. But these realignment decisions will boil down to the profitability and name recognition of the football program.

The upcoming 2022 football season for the Wolfpack — they are expected to compete for an ACC title — could go a long way in proving their earning power. 

What about the Big Ten?

The Big Ten seems to be looking for something in particular when adding to its conference.

With the exception of Nebraska, all its schools, including the addition of USC and UCLA, are renowned as top research universities and members of the Association of American Universities (AAU).

The ACC has five schools, UNC, Virginia, Pitt, Georgia Tech and Duke, that are AAU members which could put them higher on the Big Ten pecking order than NC State. The same goes for the remaining members of the Pac-12 and the Big 12, which includes Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford and Kansas. 

You might ask, what about proximity to the Midwest-based Big Ten? USC and UCLA's defection from the West Coast-based Pac-12 showed long plane rides won't factor into future decision-making. 

On top of the Big Ten wishlist, though, is Notre Dame. The Irish are affiliated in every sport with the ACC except for the one that matters most — football. 

What Notre Dame does next — if they join the ACC full-time or bolt for the Big Ten — could either save the ACC or create a domino effect that signals its end.

Could the ACC add teams? 

The ACC can't feel comfortable with its current position, but it could be worse. Just ask the Pac-12.

A variety of reports say the Big 12 is talking this week with Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado and Utah about fleeing the Pac-12. Those four additions would create a 16-team Big 12 that suddenly would be the most stable league this side of the Big Ten and SEC. 

That would turn the Pac-12 into the Pac-5, leaving Oregon, Oregan State, Washington, Stanford and Cal as the remaining teams in the league. Let's say Notre Dame and the remaining members of the Pac-12 join the ACC, pushing its membership to 19. 

But would that bring in enough revenue to stave off the Big Ten and SEC poachers? Probably not. 

More realistic for the ACC would be to follow suit with the Big 12, who raided the smaller American Athletic Conference of Cincinnati, Houston and UCF after Texas and OU announced their pending departure.

AAC Programs like East Carolina and Memphis could be a solid fit for the ACC or teams like Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina from the Sun Belt Conference. 

"The best-case scenario for NC State, at least at this moment, is for the ACC to stay intact," Toppmeyer said. 

David Thompson is an award-winning reporter for the USA Today Network covering NC State and Duke athletics. He can be reached at dthompson1@gannett.com, at 828-231-1747, or on Twitter at @daveth89.