The Auburn Live Morning Reads: July 6 (the disrespect towards the Tigers is real)

On3 imageby:Justin Hokanson07/06/22

_JHokanson

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Vegas sets Auburn’s win total at 5.5?

The 2022 college football season kicks off in less than 60 days and oddsmakers in Las Vegas are updating their projected win totals for every FBS program. Oddsmakers are high on the SEC thus far, currently predicting that three-quarters of the conference will finish above .500.

Alabama 11.5
Georgia 10.5
Kentucky 8.5
Texas A&M 8.5
Florida 7.5
LSU 7.5
Ole Miss 7.5
Tennessee 7.5
Arkansas 6.5
Mississippi State 6.5
Auburn 5.5
South Carolina 5.5
Missouri 5.5
Vanderbilt 2.5

Now look, I understand the Auburn football situation. I get it. The quarterback position is unsettled, the receiver position seems to lack elite playmakers, there’s been turnover at both coordinator positions, and then there’s the offseason drama surrounding Bryan Harsin that the outside media loves to combine with how the team might perform this fall. Not to mention, the schedule is being regarded by many as the nation’s toughest. I get all the reasons to think Auburn could struggle. Most of them are valid.

But, what if Zach Calzada’s adjusted completion percentage well above 60 percent (suffered more drops than nearly any Power 5 QB last season) is something to actually really consider? What if the Alabama game isn’t an aberration? What if Auburn’s offensive line takes steps forward and lives up to Phil Steele’s top-ten nationally prediction? Or, what if the combination of Eric Kiesau and Jeff Schmedding, two men Harsin trusts completely, create a more effective situation than Mike Bobo and Derek Mason did? And what if teams like Ole Miss, Arkansas and/or Mississippi State don’t quite live up to the hype?

That’s definitely quite a few “what ifs.” This time of year though, nearly everyone faces those questions. Again, I get it. I’m very much a “wait-and-see” person, but this team just looks more talented than five or six wins. You combine that with the failures of a season ago, a hungry and what likely more focused team around Harsin’s vision, plus a coaching staff knowing what’s at stake, and the circumstances could be set up for an Auburn surprise. And everyone who’s ever followed Auburn football has seen this underdog story play out before.

It’s probably a good number for Vegas given the public’s temperature on Auburn football, and everything will be dictated on the field, but I sure see more ability and potential than 5.5 wins from this football team.

Bryan Harsin the 13th best coach in the SEC?

It continues.

CBS Sports ranked the SEC head coaches from top to bottom before the 2022 season began. There’s no surprise at the first two spots, with the two who faced off in this season’s national championship — Nick Saban and Kirby Smart claiming their thrones.

Auburn’s head coach? 13th, ahead of only Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea.

  1. Nick Saban, Alabama
  2. Kirby Smart, Georgia
  3. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
  4. Brian Kelly, LSU
  5. Mark Stoops, Kentucky
  6. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
  7. Sam Pittman, Arkansas
  8. Mike Leach, Mississippi State
  9. Billy Napier, Florida
  10. Josh Heupel, Tennessee
  11. Shane Beamer, South Carolina
  12. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri
  13. Bryan Harsin, Auburn
  14. Clark Lea, Vanderbilt

Here’s what CBS’ Barrett Sallee said of Harsin:

Bryan Harsin (48 overall): Year 1 was a disaster for Harsin at Auburn. The Tigers finished 6-7 (their first sub-.500 season since 2012), which was so unacceptable on The Plains that a group of influential boosters attempted a coup in attempt to fire him the week of National Signing Day in February. He has had a hard time retaining assistants and isn’t recruiting anywhere close to a level that he needs to in order to win the SEC. With that said, he did manage to beat an Ole Miss team that went to the Sugar Bowl and a very solid Arkansas team in 2021. Last year: 7 in the SEC

If we’re just looking at what’s in front of us, Harsin suffered his first losing season in nine seasons as a head coach last fall. Auburn was 6-2 and knocking on the door of the top ten last season. Things absolutely went south after that, partly because Bo Nix was lost for the season. Harsin owns all of that, good and bad.

At Boise State, Harsin won 10-plus games in five of six seasons (excluding COVID, in which Boise State went 5-2).

On the recruiting front, there are valid concerns. Auburn actually finished 18th nationally according to the On3 Consensus, which for a first-year coach in the SEC, wouldn’t normally be considered bad. The problem is, seven SEC program finished ahead of Auburn inside the top 17. That’s incredible.

And so far, the Tigers only have four commitments. They are four good players, but just four nonetheless.

We’ll see what happens this fall, but despite how last fall played out, Harsin being the 13th-best head coach in the league seems off. Leach, Napier, Heupel, Beamer, Drinkwitz and Harsin all still have plenty to prove in the SEC.

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