'We knew it was going to happen': Pirates not surprised by Clay Holmes' success with Yankees

Chris Stratton recalled a past poll for which Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers were asked who had the best stuff on the staff.

The answer was a no-brainer.

“I’m pretty sure 90% of the guys said Clay Holmes,” Stratton said.

So the Pirates aren’t necessarily surprised that Holmes has developed into a dominant pitcher for the New York Yankees, thanks to a devastating sinker and an improving slider that has provided the perfect complement.

Holmes, who was traded to the Yankees last July for infielders Diego Castillo and Hoy Park, returns to PNC Park on Tuesday when the Yankees visit the Pirates for a two-game interleague series.

Holmes is 4-0 with a 0.49 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 15 saves this season. The 6-foot-5, 245-pound right-hander remained in the closer role for the Yankees even when Aroldis Chapman — whose 315 career saves ranks third among active pitchers — returned after missing 35 games.

Where Holmes was 5-7 with a 5.57 ERA in 91 appearances over four seasons with the Pirates, he is 9-2 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 61 appearances since joining the Yankees. Per Statcast, Holmes ranks in the 100th percentile in advanced metrics such as expected ERA (1.34), expected weighted on-base average (.191) and expected slugging percentage (.206). He’s also among the tops in barrel percentage (1.1%), expected batting average (.169), chase rate (36.8%) and walk percentage (3.6%).

“He’s a very cerebral guy. He’s understanding pitching more and more,” Stratton said. “I don’t think anybody here is surprised at the results he’s getting because his stuff was electric. There’s no secret to what he’s doing, either. He’s being simple with it. His stuff’s just that good.”

That turnaround has caused Pirates general manager Ben Cherington to ponder whether they dealt the 29-year-old reliever too soon and got a good enough return. It also could give Cherington pause whether to part ways with players with controllable years at the trade deadline Aug. 2. Holmes is making only $1.1 million this season before becoming eligible for arbitration for the first time next year.

“We spend a lot of time thinking about it,” Cherington said. “He’s with another team, so I don’t want to spend too much time on him in particular, but, yeah, of course you look back and review everything you do. What’s happened since, and if a player performs much differently — whether that’s a player that’s here or a player that’s not here anymore — than we were expecting, then we’ve got to go look at that. What’s the information we were relying on at the time, and if we were off in our estimations, why was that? What can we learn from it?”

Cherington didn’t speak in specifics because Holmes isn’t the only pitcher the Pirates traded to the Yankees. Jameson Taillon, scheduled to start Tuesday against lefty Jose Quintana, is 9-1 with a 3.32 ERA and an MLB-low 1.2 walks per nine innings this season. The Pirates dealt Taillon in January 2021 for pitchers Roansy Contreras and Miguel Yajure, outfielder Canaan Smith-Njigba and infielder Maikol Escotto.

“Clay is looking pretty dominant over there, and Jamo’s doing really good this year,” Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes said. “We’ve got to take it to them.”

What the Pirates couldn’t have predicted is that Holmes would break a record held by legendary Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, the only unanimous selection in Hall of Fame history. From April 9 until June 18, Holmes pitched 31 1/3 scoreless innings over 29 games, breaking the mark of 30 2/3 innings over 28 games set by Rivera in 1999.

Pirates manager Derek Shelton said he hasn’t been “paying that close of attention” to the Yankees, but he was aware of Holmes’ scoreless streak and the success Taillon has had in the starting rotation.

“Clay’s done a nice job,” Shelton said. “He had the scoreless streak, and he’s throwing the ball well. Happy for him, but I hope he and Jamo don’t throw the ball well when they’re here. Then, when they leave, I hope they throw great.”

Where Taillon was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft whose career was sidetracked by two Tommy John surgeries and a bout with testicular cancer, Holmes was a 2011 ninth-round draft pick out of Slocomb, Ala., who developed a reputation for having a mix of nasty pitches but erratic control (he averaged 6.3 walks per nine innings).

Because of that, Holmes had trouble finding partners to play catch with and hitters who were willing to stand in the batter’s box for his live batting practice sessions. Country music star Garth Brooks stunned Pirates players when he did so voluntarily at spring training in 2019.

“I would definitely not stand in on Clay,” Stratton said. “It’s hard for him to find a catch partner, let alone find anybody stand in and try to get a hit off him.”

That Holmes has ditched his changeup, curveball and four-seam fastball in favor of the sinker/slider combination is no surprise to his former Pirates teammates, who saw the movement up close at practice.

“He was one of those guys who knew he threw a good pitch at you, and it’d hurt your thumb and he’d ask, ‘Did that one move a lot?’ ” Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller said. “You’d be like, ‘Yeah, it did!’ He knew it, too. No one wanted to play catch with him.”

What stuck with Keller were the bad breaks Holmes endured during his Pirates tenure, whether it was giving up hits on swinging bunts or being sidelined after a Nelson Cruz comebacker fracturing his right foot in a spring training game in February 2020.

“It just felt like he was getting super unlucky,” Keller said. “We knew he had really good stuff and could pitch, but it seems like he’s pulled it all together. He’s pounding the zone a lot more. Now he’s dominating, which is really cool to see. Everyone knew that it was in there, so there really wasn’t too much to talk about. We knew it was going to happen.”