Warm Independence Day, tracking rain chances late in the evening

SAGINAW, Mich. (WNEM) - The holiday weekend has featured some fantastic weather so far! The warmth turns up even more today, but there is a rain chance to watch heading into the evening. The good news about the rain, though, is that the heaviest rain doesn’t look to come in until after midnight (after most fireworks shows have wrapped up), but also that we could really use some rain with all the dry ground through the region!

Independence Day

A few sprinkles were around in our northern tier and around the Saginaw Bay this morning. Otherwise, dry weather takes us through the daylight hours with only increasing clouds during the afternoon. The wind will turn southwesterly today with a speed of 5 to 15 mph, some gusts will also reach close to 20 mph during the afternoon. That wind will allow for more of a warm-up compared to the weekend, highs today reach up to around 88 degrees. Humidity levels will also start to increase.

The Fourth of July will be warmer than the weekend!(WNEM)

This Evening & Tonight

Sunset is around 9:20 PM this evening, and at that point in the evening skies will be mostly cloudy/overcast. Around sundown is when we’ll want to keep tabs on the radar (you can do that right here!) as showers will be trying to move in, but as mentioned above, the heaviest rain doesn’t look to come in until after midnight. If you’ll be outside, it will be a good idea to have a backup plan in case you have to duck inside momentarily!

Shower chances will be around in the late-evening, though the heaviest rain and storms won't move in until after midnight.(WNEM)

The heavier rain and storms after midnight could be on the stronger side. It’s not impossible for storms to reach the severe level, though this is still a lower-end chance that is highly dependent upon how storms in Wisconsin and Illinois unfold earlier in the day. Any storms which do reach the severe level will primarily bring strong wind gusts and heavy rain. Hail up to 1″ in diameter is also a possibility. It’s also worth noting that the strongest activity of this entire storm is expected to stay farther southwest in Michigan, but the mid-morning update from the Storm Prediction Center shows slightly higher confidence that activity could reach into Isabella, Gratiot, and Shiawassee Counties too (highlighted by the yellow, Slight Risk in those counties).

Strong to severe storms are possible in Mid-Michigan, though the strongest activity stays in the SW Lower.(WNEM)

Conditions stay mild overnight with a warm front passing through, expect a low around 69 degrees with our northern counties also checking in to the middle 60s. Humidity levels will continue to increase into Tuesday. Tonight’s wind will slow down to around 5 to 10 mph, but stay southwesterly.

Tuesday

Some rain and storms will still be ongoing in the morning Tuesday, though most activity is expected to start to wind down during the morning hours. The rain and storm chance during the afternoon will also highly depend on how the rain in the morning unfolds, and how much we can clear out during the midday hours. If we are able to clear out, then more rain and storms could redevelop in the afternoon. Some of those storms could also be on the stronger-side given the heat and humidity present.

Air temperatures will reach to around 86 degrees in the afternoon, dew points will also get up to around 70 degrees. It will feel quite muggy and warm, be sure to stay hydrated if you’ll be outside! The wind will make a shift from the southwest towards the north, but hold speeds around 10 to 20 mph.

There are some smaller rain chances late in the week, give those a check on the full 7-Day Forecast!

Copyright 2022 WNEM. All rights reserved.