ALERT DAY - Stormy 4th of July

Key Takeaways

• Sunday evening stays pleasant & clear - GREAT for firework shows
• 1st round of rain arrives late Monday morning (lighter showers/storms) or during the afternoon (stronger storms)
• 1st round will impact 2nd round that could develop during the evening or overnight hours

MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) - All eyes are on the 4th of July forecast as many head out for firework displays. Monday is a First Alert Day at NBC15. Showers & storms may impact afternoon and evening plans across the area. If strong storms are able to form, gusty winds and torrential downpours are possible. Be prepared to alter outdoor plans on Monday - especially during the evening hours.

High-pressure was still in control as of Sunday evening. Sunshine broke through cloud cover that was passing by. A lake-breeze has developed and was pushing westward. A few sprinkles can’t be ruled out far East of Madison. Lows drop into the upper 60s tonight.

The 4th of July forecast has been tricky to nail down since so many factors could alter the overall outcome. Showers and storms are expected to develop on the Plains tonight. Those showers arrive into Wisconsin tomorrow morning/afternoon. The arrival of this first round will impact its strength and the potential for a 2nd round of storms. If these showers arrive later in the afternoon, they’ll tap into more instability & become a bit stronger. Heavy downpours and gusty winds are the biggest concerns. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a Level 2 (slight risk) for severe weather across southern Wisconsin.

A low-level jet will be transporting moisture & warm air into Wisconsin as this first round is underway. After the first round moves to the East, there is a chance we see a lull in activity through the early evening and perhaps firework time.

The jet is still expected to be in place Monday evening. There is a potential another round of showers/storms develop during the evening hours. If storms do develop, heavy downpours and gusty winds will remain the biggest concerns.

Firework displays may be able to stay dry if we have enough spacing between the 2 rounds of rain. There is also a potential that the 2nd round forms or moves through just as fireworks are getting underway. Please stay tuned to this evolving forecast!

Highs climb into the mid - upper 80s for Tuesday. Southern Wisconsin will remain on the periphery of an unsettled stream of upper-level energy. Periodic showers/storms are possible through Friday. Rain chances will be higher farther south towards the State Line.

Sunshine looks likely for next weekend.

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