5 bets to consider for Sunday Night Baseball
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This week’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball features a matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies. Both teams entered the year with playoff aspirations, but both have gotten off to subpar starts.
The Cardinals are right in the thick of the National League Central race, trailing the Brewers by just one game in the standings. They’re 44-36 through nearly the first half of the season, good for the sixth-best record in the National League. That would be good enough for a Wild Card spot in the new expanded postseason.
The Phillies aren’t too far behind the Cards -- they’re 41-38 -- but they face a much steeper task in the NL East. They’re trailing the division-leading Mets by 7 1/2 games, while the Braves are also five games ahead of them. That makes the Phillies' prospects of making the postseason a bit dimmer.
Can the Phillies secure a victory at home on Sunday? Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Sunday Night Baseball on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This matchup features a showdown between two pitchers with excellent reputations. The Phillies will turn to Zack Wheeler, while the Cardinals will send Adam Wainwright to the mound. Both pitchers have similar ERAs this season -- Wheeler's sits at 2.89, while Wainwright sports a 3.07 mark -- so this seems like a fair fight on paper.
However, the advanced metrics give Wheeler a significant edge. He’s been outstanding by virtually any metric and his 2.53 FIP ranks fourth among qualified starters. He’s been impacted by the Phillies’ subpar defense, which has allowed batters to rack up a .316 batting average on balls in play. They’re not going to get any better in that department, but Wheeler should still see a bit of improvement.
On the other hand, Wainwright has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a 4.21 xERA, which is significantly higher than his traditional ERA. He ranks in the 24th percentile in expected batting average against and the 36th percentile in expected wOBA.
Wainwright simply doesn’t have the same swing-and-miss stuff at nearly 41 years old. His whiff rate ranks in the third percentile, while his chase rate is in the 26th.
Additionally, the Phillies’ lineup is heating up. They rank in seventh in wRC+ against right-handers over the past seven days, so I like their chances of getting to Wainwright on Sunday. If they can put up a handful of runs, Wheeler should be able to hold up his end of the bargain.
If you’re not interested in laying -155 on the Phillies' moneyline, the over on their 4.5-run team total offers more appealing odds. It’s available at better than even money -- and you can even consider betting both together in a same-game parlay.
The Phillies’ offense isn’t quite as imposing these days without Bryce Harper. He was limited to DH duties, thanks to a partially torn UCL, but that didn’t stop him from posting a 165 wRC+. Unfortunately, Harper will now miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured left thumb.
Still, the Phillies have plenty of boppers left in their lineup. Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins are more than enough to comprise an above-average offense. JT Realmuto and Jean Segura are also above-average hitters for their positions, even though they haven’t displayed that much this season.
Overall, the Phillies’ average of 4.82 runs per game ranks third in the league and they’ve averaged 8.33 runs over their past three games. There’s more than enough here to back the over on 4.5.
Zack Wheeler under 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
I am a huge fan of Wheeler, but this is a brutal matchup from a strikeout perspective. The Cardinals have been one of the toughest teams to whiff this season, ranking just 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Additionally, the Cardinals tend to work long at-bats. They swing at the first pitch just 27.3 percent of the time, which is tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Long at-bats are a clear negative for a pitcher from a strikeout standpoint. It limits their ability to go deep into games, which means fewer batters faced.
Wheeler is typically a strikeout maven -- and he’s racked up at least seven Ks in 10 of his past 11 starts. Still, the plus-money odds make the under worth a gamble on Sunday.
Paul Goldschmidt to record first hit (+425)
If you’re going to bet on the first hit in this matchup, why not roll the dice on one of the best hitters in the league? Goldschmidt has arguably been the best player in the NL this season, racking up a ridiculous 195 wRC+. He’s also one of the best average hitters in the league, leading all players with a .346 mark.
Since the Cardinals are the away team, Goldschmidt is guaranteed an at-bat in the top of the first inning (assuming he occupies his usual No. 3 spot in the lineup). That’s obviously ideal for a first-hit prop. The Cardinals’ top two hitters in the lineup have slightly lower odds than Goldschmidt -- as they should -- but they are far from a lock to record a hit against Wheeler.
Alec Bohm to record first home run (+2200)
In the first-homer market, batting order isn’t as paramount as it is for first hit. While a premium spot in the lineup certainly doesn’t hurt, it’s far from a killer.
In this matchup, I like the Phillies side to record the first homer. Wainwright hasn’t been all that victimized by the home run ball this season -- he’s allowed 0.69 homers per nine innings -- but he’s still a bit more exploitable than Wheeler.
Bohm is also simply too talented of a hitter to be priced at +2200. He hasn’t had much success this year, posting a .289 wOBA and an 82 wRC+. However, his Statcast data suggests he’s been extremely unlucky. His .467 xSLG is significantly higher than his actual mark of .364.
Bohm has also been strong against the curveball this season, which is Wainwright’s signature pitch. Bohm owns a 50.0 percent hard-hit rate and a .562 xSLG against that offering, his best against any pitch type in 2022.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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