The A’s and Mariners are set to continue their four-game set tonight in Seattle and Charlie DiSturco of The Action Network is here to share two bets for the MLB contest (video above).
Both bets, with odds from BetMGM, are mainly influenced by the game’s starting pitchers: James Kaprielian for the A’s and Marco Gonzales for the Mariners.
In DiSturco’s opinion, both pitchers are worth fading as both have problematic underlying metrics.
Bet $20 Get $100 in Bonus Bets!
New WynnBet users only. Must be 21+. Offer available in AZ, CO, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA only. Full Terms and Conditions Apply.
Up to $1,250 First Bet on Caesars with code NPBONUSFULL
New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, PA, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA, WV only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.
Bet $1, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
New players only, 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in NJ, CO, VA, OH only. Deposit required. Bonus Bets added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bets risk excluded from returns. Terms and Conditions, time limits and exclusions apply.
2nd Chance Bet up to $500 with code NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, PA, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full Terms and Conditions apply.
2nd Chance Bet up to $100 with code NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. Available in NY only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full Terms and Conditions apply.
Bet $10, Get $125 in Sports Bonus if your first bet wins
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+ and located in PA or NJ. New users & winning bets only. Terms and Conditions apply. See website for details.
100% match up to $500
Claim your eligible bonus from within account after login per promotion instructions. Either way, get a 100% match up to $250 on your first deposit. Only one code may be used. First Deposit Bonus may only be claimed once per person. Must be 21+. CT only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.
Bet $10, Get $125 If Your Bet Wins!
New users only, 21+. Available in MI only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.
“Gonzales is long overdue for some negative regression,” DiSturco says. “Despite his 3.31 ERA…his xERA is nearly a run-and-a-half higher at 4.71 and his xFIP is 4.91.”
Plus, the Mariners southpaw doesn’t strike out batters and is sporting a career-worst walk rate. In terms of how opponents handle Gonzales, they have a .276 expected batting average.
On the flip-side, Kaprielian has proven just as bad analytically but could see some positive regression. His ERA sits at 5.88, but his xERA comes in at 5.26 while his xFIP is 5.32.
As a result, DiSturco’s first play in the matchup is over 8 runs (-120 or better). Although DiSturco believes Oakland is, by all indicators, a below-average team, their offense has shown some life in the last week and should be able to get to Gonzales.
However, DiSturco isn’t willing to trust Kaprielian and believes the Mariners will contribute their fair share to the total.
Check out the best sports betting sites and apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting apps
For his second bet, DiSturco is targeting the A’s first five innings moneyline (+145).
By eliminating Oakland’s “horrid” bullpen from the mix, DiSturco believes these sides are closer together than the odds indicate. Plus, even though the A’s have lost four straight, DiSturco believes this market is worth a shot given how lucky Gonzales has come up.