Here’s why PNC economists say no recession this year

PITTSBURGH — Economists at Pittsburgh’s biggest bank forecast slower growth over the next few years, but no recession in 2022, though the likelihood rises in 2023 and 2024.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. released its monthly outlook on the national economy Wednesday. It cited the “very strong” labor market as the best indication that a recession won’t occur this year, along with solid consumer fundamentals.

But the probability for a recession in 2023 and 2024 is about 40%, double what it was prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Read more in the Pittsburgh Business Times.

“If we were to get a recession, I think it would be fairly mild,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist. “Something more like the recessions of, let’s say, 1990 and 2000, rather than what we encountered with the Great Recession in 2007-2009. Those were also caused by the Fed overtightening in response to higher inflation. We don’t have the imbalance in the economy we did in 2007-2009 with problems in the housing market and the financial system.”

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