By Rachel Silberstein | Times Union, Albany
A sneaky new omicron subvariant, BA.5, has arrived in New York City, and it may require another round of booster shots, according to experts.
Many New Yorkers have been enjoying a mask-free summer thanks to low Covid-19 levels that are mirrored by declining hospitalization and death figures, but early indicators like virus detection in wastewater and Covid-19 lab test results suggest infection rates are starting to rise slightly in regions across the state, state Department of Health data shows.
In the last two years, the state has seen Covid-19 figures plummet in the summer months and then ramp up again in September when the weather cools and children return to school.
Scientists are concerned that the overall numbers appear to be flattening out at a higher plateau instead of continuing on the projected downward trend. Meanwhile, Covid-19 lab results indicate BA.5 and the closely related BA.4 strain are on the rise.
Dr. Jay Varma, a Weill Cornell epidemiologist who advised former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio during the pandemic, said in a Twitter thread Tuesday that all signs point to an impending BA.5 wave, but it’s unclear to what extent the new strain will result in severe illness or death.
“At a minimum, can be confident predicting that BA.5 will lead to more days when people are out of work, kids home from school/camp, & more people suffering from #LongCovid,” Varna tweeted.
BA.5, which first showed up in South Africa and then Portugal, appears to bypass immunity more easily and is more contagious. One study indicated that BA.4 and BA.5 induced worse lung disease in hamsters than previous omicron strains.
The Department of Health’s Wadsworth Center Laboratory in Albany identifies current and emerging variants by analyzing Covid-19 virus samples from across the state and consolidating its data with that of labs in New York and across the U.S. doing similar work, according to the state Department of Health data website.
The state’s sequencing data suggests that new BA.4 and BA.5 variants are spreading quickly.
On May 21, just 2 percent of Covid-19 cases in New York were identified as BA.4 and BA.5. Nearly 28 percent of cases were identified as stemming from the two newest variants by June 19, the most recent figures available from the state Department of Health show.
The omicron variant has mutated multiple times since it was identified by the World Health Organization as a “variant of concern” on Nov. 26, 2021.
The variant was first confirmed in New York on Dec. 2, 2021, and swept through the state all winter. Initially, variants BA.1 and BA.1.1 were most prevalent in the state. BA.2 emerged in February. By April, more contagious strains BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 cropped up in the state.
Now, nearly 100 percent of cases are linked to the highly contagious but often less-lethal omicron subvariants, according to the DOH.
A spokesperson for the state Department of Health said the state “continues to advance efforts to monitor, track, and sequence Covid-19 variants to protect and promote the health of New Yorkers, including BA.4/BA.5.”
The state doesn’t currently have enough variant data to analyze the new subvariants’ prevalence by region or county.
“While BA.4/BA.5 continues to rise, keep in mind, very few specimens informed the latest estimates, and the current uptick is not a surprise,” DOH spokesperson Sam Feld said in an email.
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