3 Things About Moderna That Smart Investors Know

Prior to the pandemic, Moderna (MRNA -2.45%) was like many other small biotechs. It had a promising technology that had yet to be proven, and no products available commercially. In fact, for the full year of 2019, Moderna had only $60 million in revenue, entirely from collaborations and grants, and it posted a net loss of $514 million. While this is not uncommon for biotechs, it's a stark contrast to what was to come.

As we know, Moderna's ability to rapidly produce a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus changed the financial prospects for the company and put it in a completely different position today. In the most recent quarter, Q1 of 2022, Moderna's revenue was $6.1 billion and net income was $3.7 billion. That's a far cry from the full-year results of just a few years ago.

But the past is the past, and what matters is what happens next. Here are three things about Moderna that smart investors know.

1. COVID-19 revenue will decrease but remain

As much as I wish it were not the case, it appears that Moderna will see COVID-related revenue for the foreseeable future. The most immediate catalyst is the recently received Emergency Use Authorization for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for children 6 months of age and older. This was the last age group in the U.S. to receive approval to be vaccinated and should help sustain COVID-related revenues for Moderna.

When you consider the global vaccine demand, as well as the need for boosters and possibly new vaccines to combat future variants, there's still a large market for sales worldwide. In Q1, Moderna reported it had approximately $21 billion in advanced purchase agreements for 2022. The company also believes that sales in the second half of 2022 will be slightly higher than in the first half. This revenue is a far cry from the pandemic highs, but it won't decrease to zero anytime soon.

2. There's more in the pipeline

While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccines get the headlines, there are another 46 development programs in the company's pipeline. Of these programs, Moderna has three programs in phase 3 trials. One program is its COVID-19 boosters, but there are also vaccines for two other viruses nearing their trial endpoints.

Respiratory syncytial virus is one of the leading causes of severe respiratory illness in older adults as well as younger children. The vaccine for older adults is currently in phase 3 trials, and the vaccine for children is in phase 1. A vaccine for cytomegalovirus, the leading cause of birth defects in the U.S., is also undergoing phase 3 trials.

By the end of Q2, Moderna hopes to add an Omicron-specific COVID-19 booster as well as a flu vaccine to its list of programs in phase 3 trials. 

There's no guarantee that any of these programs will reach commercial sales, but with dozens more products in the pipeline at various stages, it would be reasonable to invest with the expectation that Moderna is able to bring additional products to market.

3. The current valuation is a double-edged sword

It's clear that the market has priced in the uncertainty around Moderna's ability to bring future products to market. At the time of this writing, Moderna has a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.3, near its all-time low of 3.4. This is for good reason. While COVID-19 revenue is likely to remain, it won't return to its peak levels, and even if all the programs in phase 3 trials come to market, the revenue won't replace what's lost in COVID-19 sales.

That said, the COVID-19 vaccines have shown that mRNA technology can be successful, and the revenue generated over the past few years has put Moderna in a much better position to finance the development of future products. There's risk in buying shares, but there's also reward if Moderna can replicate its past success with future vaccines.

The bottom line for investors

Whether or not to buy shares depends on each investor's risk tolerance and investing timeline. There's reason to believe that over the long term, Moderna can grow to be a mainstay in the biotech space. As biotech investments go, there are certainly more risky investments out there. If Moderna is able to bring more and more products to market over the coming years and decades, it has the chance to be a smart investment for shareholders.

I think Moderna provides a nice balance of risk/reward because the valuation is such that investors don't need a COVID-like pop for the investment to be successful. However, investors who buy shares expecting another short-term run-up like we've seen over the past few years are likely to be disappointed.