After days of predicting its development, the National Hurricane Center suspects the second tropical storm of the season may have finally formed Friday morning as it rips through the Caribbean sea.
“The disturbance is finally looking like a bona fide tropical cyclone. Deep convection has blossomed overnight in two primary bands around the potential center. But whether there is a well-defined center yet is the million dollar question,” said NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.
A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning to help determine if the disturbance has properly developed. “Potential Tropical Cyclone Two” slowed down Friday morning, which is important for it development as hurricane specialists believe it was moving too fast to close its circulation and become the next tropical storm.
If the circulation is closed, the system will be the second tropical storm of the year and will take on the name Tropical Storm Bonnie.
Currently, the system is located about 315 miles from Bluefields, Nicaragua, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph moving west at 18 mph, as of the 5 a.m. update. The system’s tropical storm-force reach grew outward to 80 miles from the system’s center.
The NHC said heavy rainfall is possible across Costa Rica on Friday. While the system has remained unorganized, hurricane specialists suspect that could change Friday.
“One reason the system has been unable to close off a circulation so far is the very rapid speed,” NHC’s Eric Blake said. But models show the disturbance stabilizing in the evening. Then, the system should hold off from intensifying for two days. By Friday, it could jump in strength again, Blake said.
The NHC gives it a 90% chance for formation in the next five days. While it may already be a tropical storm, computer models show hurricane conditions are possible before the system arrives in Nicaragua. As a result, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, and a Tropical Storm Watch from Limon, Costa Rica, northward to the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border.
Scientists speculate that if the system doesn’t develop into a proper storm during its Caribbean cruise, it may become a hurricane after cutting through Central America and upon entering the Pacific by next week.
Meteorologists are also keeping their eyes on two other disturbances, one which has dwindled before making a mark on the United States.
The area of disturbance in the gulf has degenerated into a surface trough upon making landfall in Texas, according to satellite imagery. Heavy rain and flooding are possible over portions southern coast of Texas, but specialists don’t believe the system will move any farther inland, the NHC said at 2 a.m.
Also, a tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The NHC gave the wave a 10% chance of becoming a depression in the next two days to five days as it passes over the Windward Islands. It is then expected to move into the Caribbean where some development is possible.
After Bonnie, the next storm name would be Colin.
A tropical system could be named a tropical depression without growing to tropical-storm status. It doesn’t become named until the system has sustained winds of 39 mph and isn’t named a hurricane until it has sustained winds of 74 mph.
The 2022 season runs from June 1-Nov. 30 is predicted to be another above-normal year for storms following the 30 named storms of 2020 and 21 of 2021.
Jpedersen@orlandosentinel.com
