FIRST ALERT: Soon-to-be-Bonnie developing in the Atlantic, forecast to become the first hurricane this season

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - The National Hurricane Center has started issuing advisories on what will soon become Bonnie while also watching two other areas of potential development.

DEVELOPING BONNIE

At 5:00 PM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Island by late Tuesday, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles north of the center.

This system is now forecast to become the first hurricane of the 2022 season.

Chance of Development #2

Meanwhile, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days. The chance of development remains low at 10% over the next two days and 20% over the next five days.

Chance of Development #3

Further east in the Atlantic, a second tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. There is no chance of development over the next two days but increases to 20% over the next five days.

It’s important to note that none of these chances pose a threat to the Carolinas at this time.

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