2022 Atlanta Falcons win total: How high can the Falcons soar?

The rookie season of head coach Arthur Smith saw the Falcons finish 7-10. That is hardly a disaster as there were just enough bad teams on the schedule to keep the Falcons from looking terrible.

The highlight of last year was the play of rookie TE Kyle Pitts. He only found the end zone once but has already proven to be one of the best in the league at his position. Having a steady hand at quarterback helped, but the Falcons dealt Matt Ryan to the Colts this offseason leaving the Falcons with the duo of veteran Marcus Mariotta and rookie Desmond Ridder at the most important position.

Even though they won seven games last season the win total is set much lower this season. That is because it is hard to see where this team might have improved in any area, to be honest. Their defense was one of the worst in the NFL last season and is probably again. 

The schedule might not be more difficult, and the NFC South is down, but this is a team whose strongest position group is receiver/tight end, and as much as the NFL has never been more pass-happy, it is hard to win without strength in the trenches, and of course solid play at quarterback. If division mates New Orleans and Carolina are improved, that is going to make it even tougher for the Falcons this season. 

Atlanta Falcons Win Total

Over 4.5 (+100)
Under 4.5 (-120) 

The Pick: Over 4.5

This one is going to be tight and I would not recommend the over if it did not have the chance to at least double your money. 

When you are a team like Atlanta, there just aren't any true gimme games and one of the things I am counting on for that over is that the last game of the season, when the Falcons host the Buccaneers, is a spot where Tampa Bay is resting players as they prep for the playoffs. 

Looking more closely at the schedule the Falcons actually have a chance to get off to a decent start, hosting the Saints in Week 1 and traveling to Seattle in Week 3. After that, it is hard to count on more than one win per month as this team just doesn't have a lot of edges and might give playing time to a rookie quarterback at some point just to see what Ridder looks like. 

For the Falcons to get to at least five wins I am counting on that Week 18 win, plus home wins against Chicago, Carolina, and New Orleans. That game at Seattle might be the swing game. Trips to New Orleans and Carolina are also good opportunities. 

With so many games that could go either way, the Falcons are a decent bet on the over. An offense with Marcus Mariotta reunited with his former OC could be better than expected and rookie WR Drake London gives the Falcons another big target to make it easier for their quarterbacks. Neither solves their defensive deficiencies though, and that is definitely going to be obvious from week to week. 

This is a rare case of a team winning fewer games than a year ago but still being a nice buy on the over.

That's how you play the market.