>> WELCOME TO NEW HAMPSHIRE'S BUSINESS. I'VE BEEN TALKING TO BUSINESS OWNERS AND THEY'RE HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING THE EMPLOYEES THEY NEED TO OPERATE AT FULL CAPACITY, YET THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR MAY WAS 2.1%. WITH THAT IN MIND, TAKE A LOOK AT THESE FINDINGS ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE JOBS AND ECONOMY PROVIDED BY THE NEW HAMPSHIRE ECONOMIC AND LABOR INFORMATION BUREAU. UNEMPLOYMENT HAS FALLEN TO NEAR HISTORIC LOWS, AND THE PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL THIS FALL. STILL STRONG NEW BUSINESS GROWTH, RISING JOB OPENINGS, ENERGY PRICES AND INFLATION TO SLOW GROWTH NATIONALLY, INTEREST RATE HIKES ADD INCREASING RISK TO THE ECONOMY. AND HERE IS WHAT MY GUEST WHO RUNS THIS THINKS, IT'S THE SUPPLY SIDE. WE DON'T HAVE THE SUPPLY OF INDIVIDUALS AND MATERIALS FOR THE ECONOMY TO PERFORM AT ITS POTENTIAL. THE PERSON WHO SAID THAT IS MY GUEST AND NEW HAMPSHIRE'S TOP ECONOMIST, DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC LABOR INFORMATION BUREAU AT DEPARTMENT OF EMPLOYMENT SECURITY. WELCOME, BRIAN. >> THANKS, FRED, GREAT TO BE HERE. >> BUSINESSES OF ALL KINDS AND SIZES CONDITIONED FIND THE EMPLOYEES. JOB POSTINGS AT RECORD HIGHS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. >> YEAH, WE HAD A LABOR SHORTAGE ISSUE PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC, FRED. BUT THEN WE WERE ADDING JOB POSTINGS AT ABOUT 11,000 A MONTH AND YOU LOOK AT THE GRAPHIC AND YOU SEE NOW WE'RE UP OVER 20,000, 21,000 JOB POSTINGS ON A MONTHLY BASIS AND THAT TELLS YOU HOW DIFFICULT IT IS FOR INDIVIDUALS TO HIRE, BUSINESSES TO HIRE. WE HAVE FEWER PEOPLE IN THE LABOR FORCE. >> I WAS SURPRISED BY THAT, FRANKLY. THIS PARTICULAR REASON FOR THE HIGH JOB OPENINGS IN THE STATE, QUIT RATES. >> QUIT RATES HAVE BEEN RISING EVERYWHERE, NEW HAMPSHIRE IS THE RED LINE ON THIS CHART AND YOU NOTICE THAT NEW HAMPSHIRE QUIT RATE ACCELERATED AT A GREATER RATE THAN DID EITHER THE NATION OR OUR NEIGHBOR TO THE SOUTH, MASSACHUSETTS. YOU KNOW, IT'S BEEN COLD THE GREAT RESIGNATION. I THINK IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE BIG REASON FOR THAT, WE HAVE A CONCENTRATION OF INDUSTRIES, HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF INDUSTRIES THAT TEND TO HAVE THE HIGHEST QUIT RATES AND ELEVATED AFTER THE RECESSION, HOSPITALITY, RETAIL, FRONT-FACING INDUSTRIES THAT HAD TO DEAL WITH THE PUBLIC. OUT OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS DECIDE TODAY TAKE DIFFERENT OCCUPATIONS. >> AND THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE WORKERS AS YOU KNOW, AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS SOMETHING THAT WE'VE BEEN FOCUSING ON ON NEW HAMPSHIRE'S BUSINESS. THIS GRAPH SHOWS THAT HOUSING IS AN IMPEDIMENT TO LABOR FORCE. >> YEAH, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WAS POSITIVE. THERE WEREN'T MANY DURING THE PANDEMIC. WE ADDED A LOT OF INDIVIDUALS WHO MOVED INTO THE STATE 13, 600 IN 2021, THE PROBLEM IS IS THAT WE HAVEN'T BUILT ENOUGH HOUSES TO ACCOMMODATE THEM SO WE HAVE A HOUSING CRUNCH AND AS THE CHART SHOWS YOU, REALLY FOR A DECADE, OR MORE THAN A DECADE, WE'VE BEEN UNDERSUPPLYING HOUSING IN THE STATE AND WE KNOW IT'S GOTTEN WORSE DURING THE PANDEMIC BECAUSE WE CAN'T BUILD MUCH, WE COULDN'T FIND MATERIALS, WE COULDN'T FIND LABOR TO BUILD HOUSING AND WE COULDN'T HAVE PERMITS. >> AND THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THE ECONOMY IS REGAINING AND REGROWING LABOR FORCE, YOU SAID. >> ONE OF THE THINGS A LEGACY OF THE PANDEMIC. WE KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE STEPPED OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE DURING THE PANDEMIC. PARTICULARLY OLDER WORKERS BECAUSE OF HEALTH CONCERNS, SOME BECAUSE THEY FELT AS THOUGH THEY HAD THE WEALTH ACCUMULATION TO STEP OUT AND YOUNGER PEOPLE. WE'RE DOWN OVER 20,000 INDIVIDUALS FOR OUR LABOR FORCE, AS YOU CAN SEE ON THAT GRAPHIC, A BIG DROP IN THE LABOR FORCE, IT'S BEEN INCHING UP, BUT NOT AT A RATE THAT'S FAST ENOUGH FOR COMPANIES TO BE ABLE TO, YOU KNOW, FILL THE NEEDS THAT THEY HAVE. >> AND FINALLY, ON THIS LAST GRAPH, THE FORECASTS, ON THE RIGHT SIDE, THE FORECAST FOR 2022, 2023, IT GOES DOWN NEXT YEAR. >> I THINK 2022 IS GOING TO WIND UP BEING A FAIRLY SOLID YEAR. I THINK WE'LL SEE SLOWING JOB GROWTH AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. WE KNOW THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS RAISED INTEREST RATES SIGNIFICANTLY. WE KNOW PRICES ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON CONSUMER DEMAND. SO WE DO EXPECT THAT JOB GROWTH IS GOING TO SLOW. IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE OVER 3% KNOW 2022. AND CONCERNS ABOUT 2023, THE FED HAS MADE IT VERY CLEAR, THEY ARE GOING TO LOOK TO SQUASH INFLATION AND THEY'RE LESS CONCERNED NOW THAN THEY USUALLY ARE ABOUT THE IMPACTS ON THE LABOR MARKET. I'VE DOWNGRADED YESTERDAY THAT FORECAST A LITTLE BIT FROM 8% DOWN TO ABOUT 5%, I THINK, NEXT YEAR. AMY: BRIAN IS THE DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC LABOR AND ECONOMIC BUREAU, MARKETING INFORMATION BUREAU AT THE DEPARTMENT OF EMPLOYMENT SECURITY. THANKS, BRIAN. IF YOU MISSED PART OF THIS BRIEFING G