When Jessica McCaskill beat longtime welterweight champion Cecilia Braekhus in 2020, it was a big surprise to most observers, but then when McCaskill bested her again in the rematch seven months later, it sealed McCaskill as the undisputed welterweight champion and one of the best fighters in the sport. On Saturday night, Alma Ibarra gets a chance to pull off the same kind of surprise against McCaskill that McCaskill managed against Braekhus. Here’s everything you need to know about Jessica McCaskill vs. Alma Ibarra, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.
Before facing Braekhus the first time, McCaskill was a +350 underdog. After all, Braekhus, at the time, was the best female fighter in the world. But McCaskill clearly out-boxed Braekhus and won a majority decision. Since then, she—along with Claressa Shields, Amanda Serrano, Katie Taylor, and Seniesa Estrada—has become one of the most recognizable female stars in boxing.
McCaskill has been impressive when she fights, and she’s nearly as good when she’s been employed as a boxing analyst. Beating Braekhus changed McCaskill’s life. But she knows holding the undisputed welterweight championship comes with at least one downside.
“Everyone is coming for the throne, and it’s my job to protect it,” McCaskill said.
Enter Ibarra, who will get her shot on the undercard of the Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez vs. Srisaket Sor Rungvisai showdown. She fought for an interim junior middleweight title in 2019, losing to Raquel Miller. But she’s on a three-fight winning streak since then, and she’s apparently quite confident.
“I've won fights, I've lost fights, I've been in the big stage, I've fought for a world title, I'm a single mom, I've been kidnapped. There's not one thing that she can bring to the fight that I haven't seen and surpassed,” Ibarra said. “She's just holding what's mine, I'm here to take them.”
Here’s more info on the Jessica McCaskill vs. Alma Ibarra showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on DAZN beginning at 8 p.m. ET.
Jessica McCaskill vs. Alma Ibarra odds
McCaskill is a -600 favorite (bet $600 to win $100), so I wouldn’t bother betting on her money line. But I wouldn’t mind if you put some money on McCaskill to win by decision at -225 or for the fight to go the distance at -334. Ibarra, meanwhile, is only a +350 underdog, and I just don’t see the value in that. Quite honestly, it’s hard to find much betting value at all in this bout.
If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take McCaskill to beat Ibarra by decision at -225, Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez to beat Srisaket Sor Rungvisai by decision at -138, and Murodjon Akhmadaliev to stop Ronny Rios at -163. All of that would pay out $302 on a $100 wager.
Jessica McCaskill vs. Alma Ibarra records
McCaskill’s record of 11-2 with 4 KOs isn’t all that impressive for a pound-for-pound type talent, but her recent run has been impressive, beating Braekhus twice and then stopping Kandi Wyatt six months ago while defending her undisputed championship. As far as her losses, she lost a split decision in her second pro fight and then fell to Katie Taylor at lightweight. These days, McCaskill is so much better than she was back then.
Aside from her loss to the undefeated Miller, Ibarra hasn’t faced much elite competition. Still, her record is a solid 10-1 with 5 KOs. She’s coming off a stoppage victory vs. Laura Ramos in April, but Ramos’ record was only 4-2. Based on her resume, Ibarra shouldn’t be much of a problem for McCaskill.
Jessica McCaskill vs. Alma Ibarra prediction
McCaskill has been fighting at such a high level lately that I don’t see how Ibarra can beat her. I’m not sure whether McCaskill will knock out Ibarra, but I don’t think this fight will be particularly close if it goes to the judges’ scorecards. Say McCaskill, somewhere in the 98-92 range.
UPDATE: From the first moments of the fight, McCaskill dominated Ibarra and hurt her in each round. Just as the bell for the fourth round rung, Ibarra declined to get off her stool and the referee stopped the fight. Though she was sloppy at times, McCaskill did plenty of damage on her overmatched opponent and easily defended her undisputed welterweight championship by winning by TKO in the fourth.
If you had McCaskill winning by stoppage, you won $350 on a $100 bet. If you had her winning by stoppage in the fourth round, that paid off at $2,800 on the same wager. If you bet on McCaskill by stoppage in the third round, well, that’s terrible luck for you since you would have won $3,300 if the ref had waved it off before the bell rang to begin the fourth.
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