The most pressing question when it comes to Friday’s start of NBA free agency is . . . why?
Arguably, with scant few exceptions, this year there is no there there.
Yes, Bradley Beal will at least create the impression that he will explore options. Then he will re-sign with the Washington Wizards. All signs point in that direction.
Yes, Deandre Ayton is the rare restricted free agent who could actually leave via an offer sheet. But even then, it appears there are few dance partners, particularly with the draft approach taken by the cap-flush Detroit Pistons.
Yes, the New York Knicks will attempt to wildly overspend on Jalen Brunson, but even that will require additional cap gymnastics.
And can the Chicago Bulls actually afford to allow Zach LaVine to bolt after he was the linchpin of the (still-painful) trade of Jimmy Butler?
Otherwise, there are some intriguing names on the free-agent list, but also players whose ties are so strong to their current teams that the start of free agency merely should provide a rubber stamp, such as Kevon Looney with the Golden State Warriors, Anfernee Simmons with the Portland Trail Blazers, Bobby Portis with the Milwaukee Bucks and, seemingly (although when it comes to cash no one knows with Michael Jordan) Miles Bridges with the Charlotte Hornets.
Beyond that, only the Pistons, Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs (and perhaps Knicks) have workable cap space above the $10.3 million mid-level salary-cap exception (and even then 12 teams don’t even have that because of their standing against the luxury tax).
So if the Miami Heat, or most teams, hope to make a splash during what is termed free agency but actually is the transaction period, trades likely will be the path.
As it was for Pat Riley’s front office in 2019 for Butler.
As it was last summer for the Heat with Kyle Lowry.
Essentially, we’re likely talking about the Summer of the Mid-Level Exception.
Because when you look at the free-agent list, beyond the aforementioned Beal, Ayton, LaVine, Brunson, and even Looney, Simons, Portis and Bridges, there otherwise are little more than complementary components.
How limited? The next tier appears to be Bruce Brown, P.J. Tucker, T.J. Warren, Gary Harris, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr., Kyle Anderson, Malik Monk, Thaddeus Young, Chris Boucher, Victor Oladipo, Nicolas Batum, Delon Wright, Joe Ingles, Mo Bamba, Derrick Jones Jr., Dennis Schroder, Caleb Martin and Cody Martin.
Hardly transformative.
As far as free agency and the Heat, this summer could be something closer to James Johnson-Dion Waiters-Wayne Ellington (2016) or Avery Bradley-Maurice Harkless (2020).
Perhaps a pitch to Young as a replacement (if needed) for Tucker. Perhaps Ingles as an Oladipo-type low-cost rehab project.
Otherwise, the real list for the Heat might not be the free-agent list at all, but rather the intel of who might be available in trades, as well as the potential costs.
The chips are there: Duncan Robinson as cap filler, Tyler Herro as an intriguing prospect, and 2023 and 2028 first-round picks that could be put into play.
A splash is still possible, because it seemingly always is possible when it comes to Riley.
But this summer, perhaps even this coming week, it likely will be about more than getting a name signed on the dotted line. Instead, an upgrade likely will have to come through tricks of the trade.
Forget the start of free agency. This summer, it looks like the trade market will hold the greatest sway.
IN THE LANE
EVOLVING WINDOW: When it comes to a potential Philadelphia 76ers move for the Heat’s Tucker in free agency, keep an eye on two names: Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmoz. If the 76ers can do something to shed those contracts, they could move below the luxury-tax line to make a three-year, $33 million offer to Tucker built off the non-taxpayer $10.3 million mid-level exception, trumping the $27 million the Heat could comfortably pay over that term without touching exception money. However, with Philadelphia’s draft-night move for De’Anthony Melton, it seemingly takes the 76ers out of play with the full mid-level and therefore seemingly out of play for Tucker, left instead with the taxpayer $6.4 million mid-level exception. The Heat, without touching their mid-level exception, could start a new Tucker contract at $8.4 million for next season.
BEASLEY’S BACK: Back playing competitively on U.S. soil for the first time since he was traded by the Los Angeles Lakers midway through the 2018-19 season, former Heat first-round pick Michael Beasley had quite the debut last week in the Big3 halfcourt circuit, including a pair of 4-point shots (from a circle set up near midcourt). Playing for the 3’s Company team captained by former Heat guard Mario Chalmers, Beasley closed with 26 points in the first-team-to-50 game format. The 50-47 victory was sealed by a winning basket from Chalmers, who briefly was with the Heat on a 10-day contract this past season (albeit not seeing action). The Beasley-Chalmers win came despite 26 points in opposition from former Heat guard Gerald Green.
NEXT TASK: With a goal of incorporating more mid-range shots into his game, Heat guard Gabe Vincent said he already has his offseason study guide. “There are two guys in this league that are really good and are on the same team. Chris Paul and Devin Booker have been great at it,” Vincent said during a visit to the Heat’s youth summer camp. “Obviously, DeMar [DeRozan], it’s part of his game now. [Carmelo Anthony] made a career off of it. But I think Chris Paul might be one of those guys that’s just a specialist in the pick-and-roll, a legend of this game. He uses it to his advantage to keep the defense honest. You go back and watch older film of Gilbert Arenas, those guys could always get to the elbows in an iso situation and get a shot up. So the play is there.”
CONTRASTING VIEW: While it appears Beal will take his maximum payoff from the Wizards in free agency, at least one NBA legend thinks it’s a mistake, especially with a potential suitor such as the Heat out there. “Miami would be a very dangerous team and possibly even win a championship with Bradley Beal along with Jimmy Butler and what they have down there. Just a phenomenal player and that’d be perfect,” Tracy McGrady told NBC Sports Washington. “I’m just telling you the truth. He’s been faithful to the Wizards, man. It’s time for him to play for a championship.”
YOUTH SERVED: With the 2022-23 regular season scheduled to start on Oct. 18 and with Heat first-round pick Nikola Jovik born on June 9, 2003, he stands to become the youngest Heat player in the franchise’s 35 seasons. The previous youngest: Justise Winslow, 19 years, 216 days, with MNA regular-season debut on Oct. 28, 2015 vs. Charlotte; Herro, 19 years, 276 days, on Oct. 23, 2019 vs. Memphis; Beasley, 19 years, 294 days, on Oct. 29, 2008 at New York; and Dorell Wright, 19 years, 335 days, Nov. 2, 2005 at Memphis.
NUMBER
5. Heat number issued to Jovic. The number previously has been worn with the Heat by Eric Murdock, Sasha Danilovic, Mark Strickland, Eddie House, Keyon Dooling, Derek Anderson, Marcus Banks, Quentin Richardson, Juwan Howard, Henry Walker, Amar’e Stoudemire, Luke Babbitt, Derrick Jones, Jr., Kyle Guy, and the Heat’s previous first-round pick, Precious Achiuwa.
