The Cup Series heads to the longest concrete oval in all of NASCAR when Nashville Superspeedway hosts the 2022 Ally 400 on Sunday. The 1.333-mile track was built in 2001, but the Cup Series didn't make its debut there until last year, when Kyle Larson was the inaugural race's victor. Larson sits in seventh place in this year's NASCAR standings, while teammate Chase Elliott tops all drivers in points coming into the Ally 400 2022. The green flag drops at 5 p.m. ET on NBC (stream now on FuboTV).
Larson is the 9-2 favorite to repeat as winner according to Caesars Sportsbook's 2022 Ally 400 odds. Ross Chastain is second in the Cup Series standings, and he's also second in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Nashville odds at 7-1, along with Kyle Busch. Before scouring the 2022 Ally 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Nashville predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Nashville picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.
In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.
Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR in Nashville (see tickets at StubHub) race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Ally 400 leaderboard.
Top 2022 Ally 400 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 20-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Nashville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The veteran has top-five finishes in three of his last five Cup Series races. He also finished fifth at this race last year and won twice in Nashville on the Xfinity Series.
Despite its name, Nashville Superspeedway isn't classified a superspeedway, but is rather an intermediate track. The model acknowledges this fact and knows that Harvick has dominated at these types of circuits. His average finish at intermediate tracks of 7.8 is the best among all active drivers and he also tops the circuit in both top-fives and top-10s on tracks of this length. Given his recent results and dominance over similar tracks, Harvick shouldn't be overlooked in your 2022 Ally 400 bets, according to the model.
And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 Ally 400 lineup. Elliott led 13 laps last season at Nashville Superspeedway and crossed the finish line in 13th place, but was later disqualified in post-race inspection after five loose lug nuts were found.
Elliott enters Sunday sitting first in the NASCAR standings but he hasn't run particularly well of late. He finished eighth at Sonoma despite entering as the race favorite as the best road racer in the field and was outside the top 20 in each of his three starts prior to that. He's managed to pile up points by leading laps and winning stages but only has three top-five finishes now in 16 starts this year.
How to make 2022 NASCAR at Nashville picks
The model is also targeting one other driver with 2022 NASCAR at Nashville odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Ally 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Nashville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Ally 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season.
2022 Ally 400 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Kyle Larson 9-2
Kyle Busch 7-1
Ross Chastain 7-1
Chase Elliott 8-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Martin Truex Jr. 12-1
William Byron 15-1
Tyler Reddick 15-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Chase Briscoe 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Austin Cindric 50-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
A.J. Allmendinger 75-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Brad Keselowski 75-1
Justin Haley 100-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Cole Custer 150-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Todd Gilliland 750-1
Corey LaJoie 2000-1
Cody Ware 2500-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
J.J. Yeley 5000-1