The Boston Red Sox (40-31) and Cleveland Guardians (36-30) meet Saturday for the middle contest of a 3-game set at Progressive Field in Cleveland. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Red Sox lead 1-0 after doubling up the Guardians 6-3 in Friday’s opener with the Over (8.5) cashing
The Red Sox enter Saturday’s game on a 5-game win streak, while posting victories in 10 of their previous 12 games away from home.
The Guardians are basically tied for 1st place with the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central but are actually percentage points ahead. They’re also 16-11 at home this season, including 8-3 in the previous 11 despite Friday’s setback.
Red Sox at Guardians projected starters
RHP Josh Winckowski vs. RHP Shane Bieber
Winckowski (2-1, 3.68 ERA) makes his 4th start. The rookie has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 through 14 2/3 IP.
- Recorded 1st-career quality start last time out, allowing 2 ER on 7 H and 1 BB across 6 2/3 IP against the Detroit Tigers Monday
- Will be making his 1st-career MLB road start
Bieber (3-3, 3.00 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 78 IP.
- Winless in past 3 starts, posting 3 consecutive no-decisions
- 1-0 with a 2.59 ERA across 24 1/3 IP in 4 June starts – Cleveland won all 4 games
- Career vs. Red Sox: 2-2, 6.95 ERA (22 IP, 17 ER) in 3 starts, including 1 relief appearance – last faced Boston in 2019
Red Sox at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:1 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Guardians -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Guardians -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Guardians 4
Money line
The value is with the RED SOX (+135), as laying the big number with the Guardians (-170) isn’t a good idea. Cleveland’s bats have gone cold, totaling 3 runs in the past 2 outings, both losses.
Yes, Bieber is on the hill, and yes, he hasn’t faced the Red Sox since 2019. However, when he has faced Boston, he has been rather uneven, and the prospect Winckowski has come up to the majors and is building confidence. The rook will outpitch the savvy veteran.
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Run line/Against the spread
The RED SOX +1.5 (-150) aren’t a terrible play if you don’t trust the rookie hurler to get it done in his 1st-career road start, and you’d like a little insurance. Boston is on a 5-game heater, however, therefore it’s best to play the Sox straight up for a much better value.
Over/Under
The OVER 8.5 (-120) just came through in Friday’s series opener, with 9 total runs and an O/U line of 8.5. Both teams scored a run in the 9th to inch this one across the finish line.
Over bettors might be in for another sweat job Saturday, but the lean is to the Over, yet again.
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