Column: Padres relief shines, and the Phillies rivalry is real

Whatever their thoughts on cheesesteaks, the Padres are obligated to view the Philadelphia Phillies as rivals, despite the 2,400 miles between them and playing in a different division.

Rivals seek the same prize, in this case one of the National League’s three wild cards should each coastal team not eclipse the favorite — the Dodgers in the West; both the Mets and Braves in the East — in its divisional heat.

Rivals pose a scary threat to one another.

The Phillies, who beat ace Joe Musgrove to open a four-game series Thursday night, could overtake the Padres if they live up to a huge payroll that’s fourth in Major League Baseball.

Philadelphia’s outlay, at $233 million, stands one spot above San Diego’s franchise-record payroll of $217.5 million, per Spotrac.com.

Phils President Dave Dombrowski’s World Series bling commands respect, too. Able to reward aggressive spenders in three previous stops, Dombrowski won a World Series in Florida and Boston and two American League pennants in Detroit.

The Padres led the Phillies by 6 1/2 games going into Friday night’s game, so give A.J. Preller the nod over fellow Cornell alum Dombrowski in this duel between big payrolls, though in fairness, it wasn’t until December 2020 that Dombrowski took this job.

A driving force to the Padres-Phils gap serves up a local tradition: Relief pitching once again favors the Padres.

San Diego’s bullpen, much-criticized early in the season, boasts the National League’s second-best ERA (3.37) while the Phillies are ninth. To be fair, when FanGraphs adjusts for ballparks, the two stand fourth and seventh, respectively, but under a perhaps better measure, the bullpens’ gap widens.

Win Probability Added (WPA) attempts to quantify the total impact a pitcher’s batters have on his team’s win expectancy relative to league average. Here, per FanGraphs, the Pads place third — 12 spots ahead of the last-place Phils.

Dombrowski’s decades-long love of “power arms” coincides with Phillies relievers leading the league in average fastball velocity at 95 mph. Turning the heat into better accuracy could determine Philadelphia’s fate in the wild-card race, given its NL-worst walk rate of 4.62 per nine innings.

Padres relievers, seventh in velocity at 94.0, have shown both good control (strikes and balls) and good command (accuracy within the strike zone), evidenced by their NL-best walk rate (2.66) and WHIP (1.06).

If there’s an MVP in this Pads-Phils race, it’s the MVP of San Diego’s bullpen to date: Nabil Crismatt, the Colombian changeup artist who’s brilliant at reading hitters and bagged six outs in Friday’s 1-0 victory. Crismatt throws a changeup more than half of the time, enhancing a fastball that averages 90.6 mph. Into the current series he took a 1.35 ERA with no home runs allowed, one year after allowing 10 homers.

Under bullpen coach Ben Fritz and pitching coach Ruben Niebla, the Pads’ relief corps overcame painful meltdowns in the season’s first third. Not only productive, sidearm lefty Tim Hill and closer Taylor Rogers diversify the unit’s styles.

Tougher challenges may await. Can Padres starters continue to lead the NL in innings pitched, refreshing the relievers and clarifying their roles? Will fatigue and hitters’ familiarity with them erode the relievers’ effectiveness?

In WPA, where Crismatt’s total more than doubles team runner-up Hill, Fritz’s relief corps trails only two other NL clubs, the Cardinals and Brewers.

Why does bullpen WPA matter in Padres Land?

Because the five Pads teams that reached the postseason off a 162-game season all placed first or second in that NL list, and the franchise’s most recent club to post a winning full season, the 2010 squad, a 90-game winner, led the 30-team big leagues.

Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman, a relief sensei who’s still around the team, earned WPA honors with three of those six sturdy bullpens including the 1998 World Series team. Others were Craig Lefferts, the lefty who logged 105.2 innings and a 2.13 ERA for San Diego’s 1984 pennant winner, 2005 set-up man Scott Linebrink and 2010 closer Heath Bell.

Crismatt and his tricky changeup would have dovetailed into several Padres bullpens headed by Hoffman, whose proteges included changeup artists Donne Wall and Doug Bochtler. Versatile, beloved teammate Craig Stammen of the current ‘pen is true to the Hoffman’s team ethic, perhaps best exemplified in 2003. Returning to the team late that season following a lengthy shoulder rehab, Hoffman assumed a set-up role to keep Rod Beck as the closer. (Beck, as cagey as they come, nailed all 20 save tries that year while playing up an 84-mph fastball.)

The current bullpen may need replenishment from Preller, but with the season nearly half done, it has honored a Padres’ tradition: reliable relief.