Post Action Betting

Phillies vs. Padres odds, prediction: Back the visitors in San Diego today

In advance of Friday’s Phillies-Padres MLB matchup in San Diego, Charlie DiSturco of The Action Network is here to share his best bet (video above).

The Phillies claimed the first game of the series 6-2 and will send ace Aaron Nola to the mound Friday. As for the Padres — winners of three straight before Thursday’s loss — they’ll send Mackenzie Gore to the hill.

For DiSturco, he sees a massive edge for the Phillies in the pitching matchup.

Bet $20 Get $100 in Bonus Bets!

New WynnBet users only. Must be 21+. Offer available in AZ, CO, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA only. Full Terms and Conditions Apply.

Caesars Sportsbook Logo Square

Up to $1,250 First Bet on Caesars with code NPBONUSFULL

New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, PA, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA, WV only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet $1, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

New players only, 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in NJ, CO, VA, OH only. Deposit required. Bonus Bets added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bets risk excluded from returns. Terms and Conditions, time limits and exclusions apply.

The BetRivers Logo

2nd Chance Bet up to $500 with code NYPBONUS

New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, PA, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full Terms and Conditions apply.

The BetRivers Logo

2nd Chance Bet up to $100 with code NYPBONUS

New players only, 21+. Available in NY only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full Terms and Conditions apply.

betPARX

Bet $10, Get $125 in Sports Bonus if your first bet wins

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+ and located in PA or NJ. New users & winning bets only. Terms and Conditions apply. See website for details.

100% match up to $500

Claim your eligible bonus from within account after login per promotion instructions. Either way, get a 100% match up to $250 on your first deposit. Only one code may be used. First Deposit Bonus may only be claimed once per person. Must be 21+. CT only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet $10, Get $125 If Your Bet Wins!

New users only, 21+. Available in MI only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.

“Over the last three starts, [Nola] has given up just two runs over 23 innings,” DiSturco says. “And, he’s lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.11.”

The crazy part, according to DiSturco, is that Nola could still see some positive regression based on his advanced metrics. Entering Friday’s contest, Nola has a 2.73 xERA. Plus, he only has a 3.2 percent walk rate and .219 expected opponent batting average.

Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola AP

On the flip-side, Gore has been torn apart in his last two starts. In his last six-and-one-third innings, Gore has allowed 14 earned runs. Plus, whereas Nola could see positive regression soon, Gore is a negative regression candidate entering Friday’s game.

This season, Gore has a 3.64 ERA on a 4.07 xERA. He also holds a 10.4 percent walk rate and ranks in the bottom 20 percent of baseball in hard-hit rate.


Check out the best sports betting sites and apps


Add in that the Phillies offense has dominated left-handed pitchers this season — sixth in wRC+, fifth in weighted on-base average and fourth in isolated power — and DiSturco believes they’ll have success Friday in San Diego.

As a result, DiSturco is recommending to back the Phillies Moneyline (-120) and would play it up to -140 with odds from BetMGM.