The Stanley Cup will be in the building Friday night as the Colorado Avalanche will have a chance to end the Tampa Bay Lightning dynasty with a win at Ball Arena in Denver. The Avs are -175 to win Game 5 and are prohibitive -1400 favorites to lift Lord Stanley after going up 3-1 in the series.
And while Colorado’s terrific performance on the road in Game 4 makes it tempting to keep it simple and go right back to the Avs, bookmakers are clearly putting a premium on them in a potential series clincher. Colorado closed at -150 in Game 1 and -144 in Game 2, but are now sitting 28 cents higher than their average closing odds for their first two home games of this best-of-seven.
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The betting market should adjust throughout a playoff series — especially if a team is as banged up as the Bolts are right now — but this does look like it’s a bit of an overreaction to what we saw on Wednesday night.
The Bolts still have the decided edge in goal, even if Darcy Kuemper was sharp for Colorado in Game 4.
From the outside, it looks as if the curtains are finally about to close on the Lightning, but savvy bettors know that there’s value to be found going against those kinds of narratives.
The play: Lightning, +145.