Analysis: What to Make of Mariners 2B Adam Frazier

The Mariners' 2022 season has not gone exactly like the front office had hoped. Many of its hopes and dreams relied heavily on the few lineup acquisitions it made over the course of the offseason, combined with the hope that the young players could produce. One of these deals was made last November, when general manager Jerry Dipoto pulled the trigger on a deal with the Padres to get second baseman Adam Frazier for left-handed reliever Ray Kerr and outfield prospect Corey Rosier.

The 30-year old second baseman/outfielder is only under control for the remainder of the year, but the Mariners felt his contact-oriented bat and defensive versatility fit well on their roster. His torrid stretch in the leadoff spot on the first homestand had many clamoring for an extension, but his production at the plate has tailed off in recent weeks. 

So what should we think of Adam Frazier?

First off, he has a nice track record in the big leagues. Through his first six seasons, all spent in the National League, he owned a slash line of .281/.344/.412 with a wRC+ of 103.

While he doesn't provide much thump, Frazier has excelled at getting on base and making contact. Over the course of his career, he's run a 7.6 percent walk rate, with a 12.8 percent strikeout rate. This means that he strikes out almost 10 percent less than league average and is taking walks at almost a league-average clip. 

Following an All-Star campaign with the Pirates, 2022 has not been as consistent for Frazier, whose struggles really began after he was traded to the Padres last summer. Through 61 games in a Mariners uniform, his slash line sits at .227/.297/.310. These numbers are well below what we have seen from him in the past, but there are plenty of reasons to believe in him. 

Coming into Wednesday's game, the Mississippi State product is running a BABIP of .255 and an expected batting average of .270, which ranks in the 61st percentile amongst all qualified major league hitters. Both of these numbers suggest he has been unlucky and that certainly matches up with the eye test, as it seems he lines a ball straight into a defender's glove just about once a game. 

Looking at his Baseball Savant page, we see a player that ranks in just the sixth percentile in average exit velocity and the seventh percentile in hard-hit rate. For some players, this may be cause for concern, but it is basically on par with what Frazier has done his whole career. 

In each of the last three seasons Frazier has ranked in the bottom seven percent of the league in both exit velocity and hard hit rate. He rarely ever strikes out, however, giving him a chance to put a ball in play and make something happen every time he steps up to the plate.

So what does this all mean? Frazier has simply experienced some bad luck on his batted balls. Historically, we have seen him find plenty of success with almost an identical batted ball profile. As he gets more plate appearances, we should expect his results to look more similar to the player we have seen in the past. 

Frazier does not strike out, and plays excellent defense at second base, ranking in the 86th percentile in outs above average, while also filling in corner outfield spots. His identity is not extremely exciting, but it is one the Mariners desperately need to heat up, especially with the amount of strikeouts the offense is producing as of late.

Concerns for Frazier are probably overblown, and we should expect to see these results turn around sooner rather than later.