The New York Yankees are on the path to doing something special this season. With 44 wins in their first 60 games, the Yanks are currently on pace for an MLB record 119 wins.
Of course, it’ll be incredibly difficult to keep this pace as we get to the Dog Days of Summer and then into the stretch run, but there’s nothing flukey about the Bombers’ record right now. According to MLB’s expected Win-Loss record (which is based off runs scored/allowed), the Yankees fully deserve their 44-16 record.
The Yanks will turn to Gerrit Cole — fresh off the worst start of his Yankee career — to guide them to their 45th win of the campaign. Cole and the Yankees are -235 favorites over the Tampa Bay Rays, who will turn to former Yankee Corey Kluber. The game will begin at 7:05 p.m. and will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
Rays vs. Yankees odds and probable pitchers
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: TB +1.5 (-110) vs. NYY -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: TB (+185) vs. NYY (-225)
Total: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Rays vs. Yankees probable pitchers
Corey Kluber (3-2, 3.88) vs. Gerrit Cole (5-1, 3.83)
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Rays vs. Yankees prediction and pick
Because of their incredible start to the season and their status as a public darling, bettors are going to be faced with a daily dilemma when it comes to handicapping the Yankees. If you want to bet on the Bombers, you’ll have have to pay a premium for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t mean there won’t be times when it makes sense to back the Yankees, but more often than not the price on the Pinstripes will be inflated.
That does seem to be the case on Tuesday night.
Although the starting pitching matchup does favor the Yankees quite a bit, Kluber has been steady for the Rays in 2022. The 36-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 3.88 ERA and 3.76 xFIP in 55.2 innings and is also in decent form.
Over his last three starts, Kluber has hurled 17 frames and allowed five runs for a 2.65 ERA. Kluber is rarely going to over-power lineups at this point in his career, but he projects as the type of pitcher who can keep the Rays in a ballgame, even in this matchup.
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And at +185, that’s really all you’re asking Kluber to do. Turn the game into a coin flip and hope you can win a battle of the bullpens. And while the Yankees do have the stronger bullpen, the Rays aren’t too far behind. New York’s relief core ranks second in the MLB with a 2.87 ERA, while the Rays sit sixth with a 3.05 mark.
The Yankees are red hot and have been for quite some time. After a 7-6 start, New York has won 37 of 47 and 11 of their last 12. Jumping in front of this train is not going to be fun, but the cold reality of betting on the MLB is that you’ll need to take on the behemoths more often than you will be betting on them.
At +185, the Tampa Bay has an implied win probability of roughly 35%. Even with some key injuries, the Rays’ chances are probably a shade higher than that and are in range for a bet.
Rays vs. Yankees pick
- Tampa Bay Rays +185 (BetMGM)