Jon Heyman

Jon Heyman

MLB

MLB agents think Jacob deGrom opting out of Mets deal no matter what

Jacob deGrom is back in regular touch with the Mets, he’s started throwing, and at least one Mets person suggested he wouldn’t rule out a “late June” return.

That’s all positive, but given history, and his own words, if he’s only able to put in a cameo (or maybe even if he isn’t), the experts believe he will still make good on his promise to opt out.

My survey of 12 agents (not his own agent) suggests deGrom won’t need to do much more than get back on the mound for a couple or few starts — if that — to move from a $30 million-per-year pitcher to $40 million Max Scherzer territory. A couple even agreed he wouldn’t need even one start to make the opt-out worthwhile.

Though one or two Mets people were said to be taken aback when deGrom repeated his stated intention to opt out to reporters following the late spring diagnosis of a shoulder injury that would take him out until at least June, the reality is, he was probably just being honest, and he may well be right. Plus, he didn’t say he was definitely leaving, just opting out of a contract he clearly hasn’t loved almost from the start.

Considering his otherworldly talent, the Mets’ superb start without him and their real pennant hopes, the main goal at the moment is to get him back on the mound. But don’t think Mets people aren’t wondering whether he delivers on his twice-spoken proclamation to opt out of his deal no matter what.

Jacob deGrom is still expected to opt out of the final year of his Mets contract.
Jacob deGrom is still expected to opt out of the final year of his Mets contract. Corey Sipkin

One Mets higher-up came over to me recently and wondered, “How many starts do you think it’ll take for him to opt out … eight, maybe?”

Rather than guess on my own, I surveyed agents (none who’ve seen his medicals), and the overall answer was clear: not many.

The answers ranged from zero starts (two believed deGrom that he’s gone no matter what) to 15, but the average was just 5.9 starts. After speaking to them, I’d guess it might be even lower.

Here’s a sampling of their answers:

“Three deGrom-type starts.”

“Probably one if at the end of season.”

“Five consistent quality starts.”

“Zero.”

“Between 2-3 at the end of the season.”

“Ten healthy starts at the end.”

Some agents believe Jacob deGrom will opt out even if he doesn't pitch this season.
Some agents believe Jacob deGrom will opt out even if he doesn’t pitch this season. Corey Sipkin

In other words, the experts generally believe there’s an excellent chance he’d opt out with his one guaranteed year remaining at $30.5 million for 2023 and a $32.5 million Mets option for ’24 left on the deal with only a cameo role this season. Some mentioned how the ’24 club option is a particular negative for the player.

Anyway, perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising, as ex-teammate Noah Syndergaard got $21 million off a couple late relief appearances last year, and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander originally got $50 million for two years off six innings over two seasons before it was reduced to $25 million for one year plus a vesting option for another $25 million following a medical look-see. (And Syndergaard has been excellent in Anaheim and Verlander’s the clear early Cy Young favorite back in Houston.)

The couple of agents who named a new salary, not surprisingly, presuming reasonable health put deGrom in the $40 million-a-year category first established by Scherzer with his record-per-year $130 million, three-year deal. The value of great pitching is greater than ever, even if immense talent comes with a degree of fragility. (Though Scherzer wasn’t able to make his last start in 2021 and is out now with an oblique injury, he has a long history of reliability to go with a Hall of Fame résumé.)

For now, Mets people are pleased deGrom is back in touch with them — there’s been a perceived lack of responsiveness at times, and the relationship has occasionally seemed uneasy — and also back in New York. His agent, Stephen Veltman, did not return a text. Mets people are split over whether the recent communication upgrade stems from new manager Buck Showalter commanding more respect, deGrom knowing this Mets team is a bona fide contender or greater concern over the continuing nicks.

Late June is the latest return hope, according to a source, though most Mets people aren’t pinpointing a date. If it’s any time in the next several weeks, count on him opting out, as he’s promised.