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The Detroit Tigers grabbed a 4-2 extra-innings victory over the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday, and they now host the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday night. The Tigers will start their ace, Tarik Skubal, against Cleveland’s Konnor Pilkington. Both pitchers have been efficient to start 2022, so let’s see how Caesars Sportsbook has priced this AL Central matchup.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians odds
Caesars Sportsbook is one of the most reliable sportsbooks in the betting industry, and they have the Tigers as -140 money line favorites. The Guardians are +120 money line underdogs, and a $10 wager on Cleveland to win on Thursday returns $12 of profit. The over/under or total is 7, and the over has -115 odds while the under has odds of -105. Let’s see how our experts break down Thursday’s game.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians money line prediction: Tigers ML (-140)
Detroit entered the 2022 season with hopes to compete for a postseason spot, but it has not lived up to expectations. Free agents Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodríguez were brought in for a combined $217 million, but have struggled to make an immediate impact on a squad that is 15-28. However, they have momentum from their extra-innings win against the Twins on Wednesday, and we predict they can get two wins in a row today.
Tarik Skubal has been a stud for Detroit this year, as the 25-year-old has a 28.4% strikeout rate, 23.9% K-BB ratio and a 2.77 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) across eight starts. Per Fangraphs, he is the second-most valuable pitcher in the MLB, and he uses a strong mix of sliders and sinkers that has resulted in a ground-ball rate of 49.2%. He will get a struggling lineup in the Guardians as they have the sixth-lowest wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) against lefties this season, and he should make easy work of this Cleveland lineup.
Konnor Pilkington starts for Cleveland, and he has mainly pitched out of the bullpen this season. With that being the case, he likely will not go too far into the game, and the Guardians should be forced to use their relievers early. Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez have been removed from the lineup whenever Cleveland faces a lefty, and it remains unknown where the runs will come from for the Guardians. With so much unknown about how Pilkington will perform, we like our chances with Skubal and predict that the Tigers will beat the Guardians on Thursday night.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians total over/under prediction: Under 7 (-105)
Due to Cleveland’s struggles against lefties, and Skubal’s success this season, we predict that runs could be hard to get on Thursday night. Pilkington may not have much experience starting at the Major League level, but posted a strikeout rate of 30.8% in the Minors. Additionally, Cleveland’s bullpen is top-ten based on skill interactive ERA (SIERA), and the Tigers have scored the fewest runs in baseball (2.74 runs per game).
Comerica Park has also seen fewer home runs this season than the majority of parks, ranking 25th in MLB, and the total has gone under in eight of Detroit’s last 11 home games. The total has gone under in five of Cleveland’s last six games and in four of Detroit’s last five. Therefore, we will ride this trend and predict that there will be under 7 runs on Thursday night.
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