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Mets vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for Monday, May 23 (Giants Snap Losing Streak)

By Joe Summers

Alex Cobb is due for positive regression as the Giants host the Mets tonight
Alex Cobb is due for positive regression as the Giants host the Mets tonight / C. Morgan Engel/GettyImages
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The 22-18 San Francisco Giants bring a four-game series into today's series opener against the 28-15 New York Mets. First pitch is at 9:45 p.m. EST, and the Giants are searching for answers after losing six of their last eight.

They've got the right starter to halt their losing streak with Alex Cobb taking the hill. Cobb got lit up for seven runs in 5.1 innings against the Rockies in his last start, but I'm willing to forgive mishaps at Coors Field. His underlying metrics are among the best in baseball and he's due for positive regression.

New York will send David Peterson to the mound after winning four of its last five. Peterson allowed three runs to the Braves over five innings last week, but still maintains an impressive 1.89 ERA on the season.

Neither pitcher has lasted through the sixth inning in a single start yet, so each bullpen should factor heavily into this contest. Which squad has the edge? Can San Francisco get back in the win column or will New York stay hot on the road?

To answer those questions, let's take a gander at the odds from our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this Mets vs Giants matchup:

Mets vs Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets +1.5 (-170)
  • Giants -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

  • Mets: +130
  • Giants: -140

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Mets vs Giants Prediction and Pick

Okay, Alex Cobb's bad luck is getting ridiculous at this point. He has a 5.61 ERA despite a career-best 2.67 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and I've been banging the drum for him every time I've had the opportunity. I look at a ton of pitching profiles when I write these, and Cobb's is still the most impressive I've seen this season:

from Baseball Savant
from Baseball Savant /

That's elite stuff right there. The funny thing is, even though he gave up seven runs to Colorado in his last start, he still got the win! Baseball is dumb, sometimes. Which is exactly why I prefer to look at advanced metrics like these instead of, you know, wins and losses.

The wind is blowing straight out to center field today, so limiting hard contact is a must. Cobb certainly does that, especially compared to his counterpart, David Peterson. A former first round pick, Peterson is putting together a nice season but he's in just the 27th percentile in barrel percentage. The Giants have the fourth-best OPS against left-handed pitchers during May, so they should find success.

Peterson struggles with command at times too, as evidenced by his 27th-percentile ranking in walk rate. San Francisco averages the most walks per game at home in the entire league, so they have an advantage there as well.

One of these days, Cobb will stuff a four-leaf clover in his pocket and he's off to the races. His luck can't stay this bad forever, and soon his box score statistics will match the incredible underlying metrics he's put together. I think the Giants win, but it's notable that 13 of their last 15 wins have come by multiple runs. When they're victorious, they're overwhelmingly victorious. As a result, I'll take the plus odds on the run line instead of paying -140 juice on the moneyline.

Let's go, Mr. Cobb. Today's your day, baby.

Pick: Giants -1.5 (+140)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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