Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 4 odds and best bet

Game 3 certainly gave us a lot to think about for the rest of this series. For starters, the Heat got the win to go up 2-1, winning the game by building a big lead and then holding on (and my over pick cashed).

In the process, the Heat might have lost top scorer Jimmy Butler. He is listed as questionable, as are Kyle Lowry, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, all of who played in the last game. 

It was good to see Lowry out there, but they are really going to need a lot more from him if Butler is unavailable. The same goes for Bam Adebayo, who was the best player for either side in the Miami win. (Maybe it was Boston's Jaylen Brown).

Robert Williams did not play for Boston and is listed as questionable, as is Marcus Smart. Those are the Celtics' two best defensive players. 

Who is and is not on the floor is going to make a huge difference in how we play this game. 

Game Info

Miami Heat (2-1) vs. Boston Celtics (1-2)
Monday, May 23, 2022
8:30 p.m. ET
TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
ABC

Betting Odds

Spread: Heat +6.5 (-110), Celtics -6.5 (-110)
Total: 208.5
Moneyline: Heat +215, Celtics -255

Best Bet

Over 208.5

With the over the other night, that makes three straight in this series, and for what it is worth, apparently all of the games went over when these teams met in the conference finals in the bubble too.

With all of these overs, we are seeing another increase in the total this evening, but it is not pushing me off the total.

Game 3 was a weird game. It looked like it should have cruised to the over at halftime, and then we got a massive flurry to get the points we needed in the last couple of minutes of the game. 

Heading into Game 4, we have some uncertainty about Butler, who is both an offensive and defensive threat. What we know for sure, though, is that the Celtics are desperate for a win and that should wake up top scorer Jayson Tatum offensively. 

Tatum was a disaster with just 10 points in the Game 3 loss, while Brown led all scorers with 40. I am not saying there is animosity between the two teammates, but my instinct is that he does not like getting outdone by his fellow All-Star and that we see a better performance than what we got in the last game, especially at home. 

When that happens, we should see a nice scoring output from the home team win or lose. 

Boston has been able to navigate the absence of Williams, and they can be a better offensive team without him (weaker on defense too which helps overall scoring). No Smart will also make it easier for a Miami backcourt that has been up and down throughout the series to figure it out and makes some shots. 

Until a total in this series gets to the 210 range, the over is looking good. This game could go either way with the sides, so I like the total once again. 110-101 look like a good target.