The Washington Nationals take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Brewers prediction and pick.
Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals, while Brandon Woodruff takes the mound for the Brewers.
Patrick Corbin has a 6.28 ERA. He has not had one dominant start this season. His best outing was an April 17 game in which he pitched 5 1/3 innings and gave up two runs to the Pirates. He had a quality start against the Marlins on April 28 — six innings pitched, three runs allowed — and other than that, it has been a real struggle for him in 2022. Corbin has had two starts in which he gave up at least six runs and did not get more than eight outs. He gave up five runs in two other starts. He simply has not been able to pitch out of jams. That's notable when making a Nationals Brewers prediction, because Corbin has given up only four home runs in 38 2/3 innings of work. This is not a case in which a pitcher is serving up a bunch of gopher balls. It's more a matter of Corbin not being able to get big outs with runners in scoring position. Opponents are stringing hits together against him.
Brandon Woodruff has a 5.35 ERA. He has given up at least three runs in each of his last four starts and has not pitched beyond the sixth inning in any of those starts. Woodruff had a good mini-run in April, when he pitched 11 straight shutout innings in two starts, but for the most part, he has been tagged and touched up when he has taken the mound this year. He has given up 34 hits in 33 2/3 innings pitched. You can do the simple math there when you think about your Nationals Brewers pick based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Brewers Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-102)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (-118)
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
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Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread
They could hammer Brandon Woodruff, who has simply not pitched very well this year. Milwaukee needs a much better version of Woodruff to show up, but in his last four starts, he has struggled to put hitters away. Washington was dominated on Friday, but with the big bats the Nats have — particularly Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz — this team has a good chance of bouncing back and getting into the win column.
Washington has won series against good teams earlier this season, notably a road series in San Francisco against the Giants. The Nationals are not a very good team, but they have had their moments, and their sluggers make them dangerous on any given day. The Nats also had some rough luck on Friday: an inside-the-park home run was narrowly averted on a controversial play in which the Brewers' catcher blocked the running path to home plate. The bounces of the ball might break Washinigton's way in this one. That's baseball.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
After a convincing win on Friday, the Brewers have to feel very confident about their ability to contain Washington's hitters. The Brewers are playing with a lot of momentum after a come-from-behind win over the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday which propelled them into the weekend on a high note. The Brewers are clearly one of the best teams in the National League, playing at home against an inferior Washington side. This pick doesn't have to become any more complicated than it needs to be.
Final Nationals-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The best pick in this game is to go with the over, set at a relatively low number despite having two pitchers with high ERAs.
Final Nationals-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5
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