UNSETTLED PATTERN: A pattern that favors elevated rain chances is setting up across Alabama for the next five days as the upper ridge over the region weakens.

Look for occasional showers and a few thunderstorms today. Not an "all day" rain, but periods of rain are likely along with a few strong storms; SPC has defined a "marginal risk" (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for areas along and south of I-59. Like yesterday, the concern is hail and strong, gusty winds. The high today will be in the low 80s in most places.

THE WEEK AHEAD: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely each day tomorrow through Thursday with highs in the 78-82 degree range. This will bring potential for beneficial rain; rain totals between now and Thursday will be in the 3-5 inch range for most of the state.

Drier air is expected to return Friday, and for now most of the Memorial Day weekend looks quiet and mostly dry.

The tropics remain quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the rest of May. The season "officially" begins June 1.Then, on Sunday, the ridge over the region weakens, and with the approach of a cold front showers and storms will become more numerous statewide. It won't rain all day, but periods of rain are likely, and a strong thunderstorm can't be ruled out. Heat levels drop considerably as most places will see a high around 80 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: Rain chances will remain elevated Monday through Thursday as a moist, unstable airmass will remain in place. A few strong storms will be possible Thursday as a cold front approaches, and then the latest global model data suggests drier air will back into the state Friday, just in time for the holiday weekend. Highs will be in the 80s.