Game 1 of the Battle of Alberta got off the rails real quick. By the time we reached the first TV timeout, the Flames were up 3-0, and the lead was 6-2 by the midway point of the second period. At the end of the game, the final score looked more like a Big Ten Football classic than a Stanley Cup Playoff game.
Game 2 is set to begin on Friday, May 20 at 10:30 p.m. ET. Can we expect another barrage of goals?
Flames vs. Oilers Game 2 preview
What’s even wilder about Game 1 is that Edmonton and Calgary combined for 15 goals on Wednesday night. That’s over halfway towards the total amount of goals scored (29) in Calgary’s Round 1 victory over Dallas, which went to overtime in Game 7.
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For neutrals, the curtain-raiser for the Battle of Alberta was a spectacle. For coaches, it was a nightmare. For bettors, well, there’s not all that much you can glean from a game that plays out that way.
As you’d expect, bookmakers were quick to adjust the total for Game 2. After closing at either 6 or a flat 6.5 on Wednesday night, the 15-goal circus we saw in Game 1 has the over at a juiced 6.5 for Friday night’s encore on BetMGM.
It is the correct adjustment from the oddsmakers, as the narrative surrounding the Flames after Round 1 had everyone thinking that this series could be another throwback to the Dead Puck Era. But playing the Oilers is a very different task compared to playing the Stars. While Dallas was incentivized to sit back and make every contest a rock fight, Edmonton needs the game to be open to allow its offensive dynamos to shine.
While it is pretty safe to predict that this game will be a little tighter than what we saw 48 hours ago, it is harder to project how well the goaltenders will play. Mike Smith and Jacob Markstrom were both superb in Round 1, but completely wilted in Game 2. Neither netminder is in danger of losing his net to his respective deputy, so whatever goalie bounces back quicker will give his team an edge in this series.
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As soon as Game 1 ended, there were probably some savvy bettors who couldn’t wait to bet the under and go against what could end up being an over-adjustment from bookmakers. But, there is an argument to be made that the Over/Under was set too low to begin with, based on what we saw from Calgary’s Round 1 rock fight with the Stars. The total looks fine.
However, there does still seem to be some value backing the Flames to win this game by multiple goals. Edmonton’s defense was leaky in Round 1. If the Oilers didn’t get superb goaltending and went up against a team with better finishers than the Kings, they’d probably be on the golf course right now. That defense didn’t show much improvement in Game 1.
Calgary’s offense is deep, relentless and has one of, if not, the best top lines in the league. With Leon Draisaitl clearly battling an injury, the Oilers could have issues keeping up with the Flames again on Friday night.
Oilers vs. Flames pick
Calgary -1.5 (+145)