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Detroit and Cleveland will both likely be looking at this three-game series as a good opportunity to turn things around after some poor recent results. The Tigers (13-25) lost the momentum gained in a four-game winning streak by losing the final two games of their series against the Rays, while the Guardians (16-19) have lost five of their last six games, including the last three. Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit in the teams’ first meeting, with Aaron Civale taking the hill for Cleveland. Let’s take a look at the odds.
Tigers at Guardians odds
There is very little between the odds of the teams for the opener, with some sportsbooks offering -110 odds for both clubs, but FanDuel Sportsbook gives a slight edge to the home team, with Cleveland at -110 and Detroit at -106. That means that to make a $10 profit, a bettor would have to stake $11 on the Guardians or $10.60 on the Tigers if their team wins the game. The total, or over/under, is set at 8.5 runs, with the over priced at -124 and under 8.5 at +102. Now let’s see the plays our experts like for this matchup.
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Tigers at Guardians money line prediction: Tigers ML (-106)
Starting pitcher Tarik Skubal gives the Tigers hope of making a positive start to their series in Cleveland this weekend. The Tigers are last in the AL Central. That is not where they were expected to be, but their lineup has just not hit well this year. They scored just two runs in total in successive losses to the Rays this week, and are averaging just 2.76 runs per game. First baseman Miguel Cabrera has been carrying the offense and leads the team in RBIs. The Guardians are not having a great time themselves, though, and have lost their last three games. This is the first time the teams have met this season.
Casey Mize was considered Detroit’s best young pitching prospect but Skubal may be overtaking him after a good start to the 2022 season. He has pitched 13 shutout innings over his last two starts and struck out 11 Orioles in his most recent appearance. Guardians starter Aaron Civale has been struggling this year, allowing at least six earned runs in three of his six starts. He has lasted more than 5 innings only once. The preferred play for this game is to back the stronger starting pitcher with Civale hard to trust, even against the Tigers lineup. Our prediction is that Skubal can get enough outs to set Detroit on the way to a welcome road win.
Tigers at Guardians total over/under prediction: Under 8.5 (+102)
Predicting a win for Skubal and Detroit pairs well with a low-scoring game. Three of his four road starts this season have gone under the posted total for the game. Cleveland putting the struggling Civale on the hill could be just what the Detroit bats need to get them going, even though it’s not likely that they will be able to deliver the same level of punishment that some of the Guardians’ recent opponents have.
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The Guardians have been an over team this season, getting involved in some very high-scoring games, but they have been feast or famine in that respect, with some duds at the plate as well. Their lineup is due to regress and an in-form pitcher such as Skubal could keep them under control. Our prediction is that this game should produce under 8.5 runs.
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