Gene Frenette: Jaguars having great quarterback-pass rusher combo is best path to winning

No matter what happens three, five or 10 years down the road, the Jaguars have the right idea. They’ve prioritized a path to success that even their harshest critics can’t second-guess. 

You grab what may be the best available player at the most critical position on both sides of the ball, and hope those players avoid whatever pitfall the football gods heap upon the most promising NFL prospects. 

With back-to-back No. 1 draft picks, the Jaguars took a quarterback in Trevor Lawrence that many football savants expect will have long-term success, followed by a pass-rusher in Travon Walker with enormous potential, but whose future is viewed with more uncertainty. 

Right or wrong, and we’ll likely know by 2024 whether Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson should have been the Jaguars’ choice over Walker, nobody can question this is the route any franchise in rebuilding mode must take to stop being so perpetually awful. 

“I like where the Jaguars are, but those guys [Lawrence and Walker] got to develop and come through,” said former NFL head coach and NBC analyst Tony Dungy. “If I’m building a team today, those are the first two pieces I’m looking for, quarterback and pass-rusher, because those guys can impact the game like nobody else.”

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Dungy saw that first-hand during his seven seasons (2002-08) at the helm of the Indianapolis Colts, where he inherited eventual five-time league MVP and No. 1 overall draft pick (1998) Peyton Manning just as his career began taking off. 

As if lucking into Manning wasn’t enough, that coincided with general manager Bill Polian’s streak of hitting home runs on practically every first-round draft selection for a decade. In Dungy’s first year, the Colts took Dwight Freeney, a No. 11 pick who went on to collect 107.5 sacks over the next 11 seasons. 

The following draft, Polian used a fifth-round pick on Robert Mathis, another pass-rusher who led the NFL three times in forced fumbles and totaled 123 sacks in 13 seasons with Indianapolis.  

Nobody in NFL history had a more lethal combination of quarterback and twin pass-rushers than the Colts when Manning, Freeney and Mathis were all in their prime from 2002-10, albeit the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings came close during their 1970s heydays.

The Colts went to the playoffs nine consecutive years during that span, tying the Dallas Cowboys’ all-time NFL record streak until the New England Patriots eclipsed it with an 11-year run (2009-19). 

Proof the Jaguars need a dynamic duo 

Even before NFL offenses began exploding the past two decades, teams who found the right quarterback and had an elite pass-rush were perennial contenders. 

The Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowls with Hall of Famers in quarterback Jim Kelly and Bruce Smith, still the league’s all-time sack leader with 200.

Right behind Smith is Reggie White (198), whose free agency defection to the Green Bay Packers coincided with the rise of quarterback and three-time league MVP Brett Favre, elevating the ‘Pack into a Super Bowl champion. 

When Manning resurrected his career with the Denver Broncos, they had current active NFL sack leader Von Miller (115.5) and that combination led to four playoff appearances in four years, including a Super Bowl triumph. 

The Los Angeles Rams felt they needed a quarterback upgrade from Jared Goff and signed Matthew Stafford, then traded for Miller, an acquisition that produced immediate results when the Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals to win their first Super Bowl in 22 years. 

With the Bengals trying to add to a 20-16 lead, it was Miller — who has since left in free agency to sign with the AFC-contending Buffalo Bills — that stalled two second-half drives by sacking quarterback Joe Burrow. 

“It’ll be interesting to see how the Rams replace Miller when they need game-swinging plays to change the momentum,” Dungy said. “You need elite play at the pass-rushing position to stop people now. When the Rams needed to win the Super Bowl, it wasn’t [cornerback] Jalen Ramsey making the plays, it was [defensive tackle] Aaron Donald and Von Miller.” 

That winning formula is tried and true. NFL franchises who sustain success usually have a Pro Bowl quarterback and, quite often, a sack artist or two that consistently terrorizes opposing quarterbacks. 

After years of mediocrity, it’s imperative for the Jaguars to hit on that combination. 

Can Trevor-Travon deliver? 

In NFL history, only the Cleveland Browns previously had the distinction of using back-to-back No. 1 picks on a quarterback and pass-rusher. They selected QB Tim Couch (1999) and Courtney Brown (2000), but those picks failed miserably.

Couch threw more interceptions than touchdowns in five seasons with the Browns and never played again, his career ending when the Jaguars released him after a three-week stint in the 2007 preseason. Brown had a decent rookie year (4.5 sacks), but struggled to stay healthy, missing 33 games during his five seasons in Cleveland. He was out of the league after playing one more year in Denver. 

The Browns tried again in 2017-18, opting for defensive end Myles Garrett with the top pick, then quarterback Baker Mayfield the following year. Garrett has lived up to the hype, collecting 58.5 sacks in five seasons. It appeared Mayfield was making progress to being the long-term answer, but the Browns got impatient when he struggled last season. His future is now in limbo after Cleveland signed Deshaun Watson to a $230 million guaranteed contract.

Still, that doesn’t mean the Browns were wrong for their massive investments in a quarterback and pass-rusher. Except for Garrett, it simply didn’t work out the way they hoped. The challenge is always picking the right ones. 

Cleveland took Couch over No. 2 pick Donovan McNabb, who went on to six Pro Bowl berths with the Philadelphia Eagles. In the 2000 draft, the Browns passed on first-rounder John Abraham, who had 133.5 sacks in his career with the New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, becoming All-Pro in his second year. 

Dungy says each organization has to decide which player is the right fit. He recalls Polian getting “raked over the coals” for taking future Hall of Fame running back Edgerrin James over Ricky Williams. 

“In our system, the back has to protect the quarterback and Edgerrin was better at doing that,” said Dungy. 

He added the Colts took Freeney because playing home games on artificial turf, the team wanted speed rushers and grabbed Mathis the following year for the same reason. The Hall of Fame coach had no issue with the Jaguars picking Walker over Hutchinson. 

“My guess is the Jaguars evaluated what they had to do and picked the right guy for them,” Dungy said. “You need elite play at the pass-rushing position to stop people now. An elite cornerback can only cover one guy, and your best corner isn’t going to cover Ja’Marr Chase all the time. But if the quarterback is under duress and can’t get passes off on time, that’s how you stop people.” 

With the exception of Houston Texans teammates J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, no tandem sacked Jaguars quarterbacks more often than Freeney and Mathis. They combined for 25.5 sacks in 32 career games against them. Manning had a 15-5 record against his AFC South rival, torturing the Jaguars like no other quarterback not named Tom Brady. 

Now imagine if Trevor Lawrence, Travon Walker and their 2019 first-round pick, pass-rusher Josh Allen, become just half of what Manning, Freeney and Mathis were in their careers for the Colts. 

The next decade could be special for the Jaguars, providing the high investments they made at quarterback and pass-rusher turn out to be the right calls. 

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540 

Gene Frenette Sports columnist at Florida Times-Union, follow him on Twitter @genefrenette