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Voter turnout figures are in for Kentucky's primary. Here's how they compare to past years

Morgan Watkins
Louisville Courier Journal

Kentucky's unofficial statewide turnout for this week's primary election hit 19%, falling below the 31% turnout the commonwealth had for the 2020 primary, when voting access was greatly but temporarily expanded during the pandemic's first year. 

In Jefferson County, the unofficial turnout was a little higher, reaching nearly 21%, per the county clerk's office. That's also below the county's 36% turnout in the 2020 primary.

Here's how the state and county-level turnout percentages for 2022's primary (which are preliminary) compare to other recent primary elections, based on State Board of Elections data.

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Looking at the five statewide primaries that preceded the 2020 election, Kentucky's unofficial, overall turnout this spring falls below the turnout for three of those five years.

The statewide turnout for those primaries was:

  • 19% in 2019
  • 24% in 2018
  • 21% in 2016
  • 13% in 2015
  • 27% in 2014

Jefferson County's turnout in those same primaries was: 

  • 22% in 2019
  • 18% in 2018 
  • 24% in 2016
  • 13% in 2015
  • 20% in 2014

Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams said turnout percentages for the state's primary elections historically range from as low as the teens to as high as around 30%.

2022's turnout fits that trend, and he noted even 2020's 31% turnout wasn't really outside that normal range.

"We were surprised to get a high turnout in the middle of COVID, but that’s not an eye-popping number looking over 30 years of history," Adams told The Courier Journal. 

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What drives turnout in primaries the most is competitive intraparty elections, Adams said, especially in high-profile races at the top of the ballot for seats in Congress and for governor. 

As Kentucky keeps shifting to the right, he thinks it will be rare for both the Republican and Democratic parties to have big, competitive races. (Democrats may coalesce early behind one candidate they think can defeat a Republican in the November election, or they might not field a candidate at all in some races — which happened this year in a lot of state legislative seats.)

There may only be tough fights in the GOP primaries for certain positions, for example, so a higher share of Republicans than Democrats may show up to the polls. 

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How popular was early voting in 2022's primary?

People got three days where they could vote early — no excuse needed — before Election Day this spring, following changes Kentucky's Republican-run legislature made to the state's election laws with bipartisan support.

There weren't as many early voting days as there were in 2020, but Adams said even two years ago people mostly waited to vote early until it got pretty close to Election Day. (That's why he supported having early voting on the Thursday, Friday and Saturday before the election from now on, which is what lawmakers adopted.) 

In the 2022 primary election, Adams said about 13% of voters cast their ballot during Kentucky's trio of no-excuse early voting days, while 83% voted on Election Day, 3% voted absentee by mail or by dropbox and 1% voted absentee in-person. 

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This is the first year when early voting is a routine part of Kentucky's election process, but Adams expects it'll take time for more voters to get used to and take advantage of that new option. 

And even then, he said that isn't going to kickstart record-breaking turnout. Campaigns and candidates, he contended, are really what drive turnout in primary elections.

"By all means, I certainly am proud of early voting," he said. "I'm glad we’ve done it, but it’s not going to double our turnout."

Morgan Watkins is The Courier Journal's chief political reporter. Contact her at mwatkins@courierjournal.com. Follow her on Twitter: @morganwatkins26.