‘A world of trouble’: COVID infections up, but serious illness seems rarer, Baystate Health doctor says

Dr. Andrew W. Artenstein, chief physician executive and chief academic officer at Baystate Health, speaks to the editorial board of The Republican in 2020. (Don Treeger / The Republican file photo)

SPRINGFIELD — Baystate Health, and the Pioneer Valley, are facing a sixth surge of COVID-19 as infection numbers climb. That’s causing a drain on hospital resources, but it seems, at least for now, that symptoms are less severe.

“We are back to levels, in terms of case rates, that we saw last fall and early last winter that presaged the major spike in January and February with omicron,” said Dr. Andrew W. Artenstein, chief physician executive and chief academic officer at Baystate Health. “We can’t be sure where this is going. It could linger for a while and not go anywhere and start to decline.”

The state Department of Public Health said the seven-day average for new cases per day is 3,071.4, down a bit over the past few days but up from a low of 6,01.7 recorded March 13.

On Wednesday, federal authorities warned that a third of Americans live in high-risk areas where they should again consider wearing masks indoors.

For an increasing number of areas, “we urge local leaders to encourage use of prevention strategies like masks in public indoor settings and increasing access to testing and treatment,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control, said at a White House briefing with reporters.

Walensky noted a steady increase in COVID-19 cases in the past five weeks, including a 26% increase nationally in the last week. Hospitalizations also are rising, up 19% in the past week, though they remain much lower than during the omicron wave, she said.

Officials said they are concerned that waning immunity and relaxed mitigation measures across the country may contribute to a continued rise in infections and illnesses. They encouraged people — particularly older adults — to get boosters.

Some health experts say the government should be taking clearer and bolder steps.

The CDC community level guidelines are confusing to the public, and don’t give a clear picture of how much virus transmission is occurring in a community, said Dr. Lakshmi Ganapathi, an infectious diseases specialist at Harvard University.

When the government officials make recommendations but do not set rules, “it ultimately rests on every single individual picking and choosing the public health that works for them. But that’s not what is effective. If you’re talking about stemming hospitalizations and even deaths, all of these interventions work better when people do it collectively,” she said.

Baystate’s Artenstein said most of the problem counties in the U.S. today are in New England and the Northeast. The list includes Hampden, Hampshire and Berkshire counties.

“We are in a world of trouble right now, and the rest of the country is probably going to see it spread to them,” he said.

In the past two weeks, Springfield Mayor Domenic J. Sarno and Western Massachusetts state Sens. Adam Gomez and Eric Lesser have all announced positive COVID tests. Gomez, who was was hospitalized for five days, said he was fully vaccinated but had not received a booster shot. Sarno and Lesser, who were both vaccinated and boosted, reported mild symptoms.

On Wednesday, the Springfield Police Department said Superintendent Cheryl Clapprood, who was vaccinated and boosted, tested positive and was working remotely while experiencing mild symptoms.

The city of Springfield reported 713 new confirmed COVID cases in the week of May 8. The numbers have been going up steadily over the last nine weeks from a low of 48 in the second week of March.

Springfield issued a mask advisory on May 6 due to the uptick in COVID-19 cases, urging masking especially among those with underlying health conditions.

Artenstein said transmission rates and positivity rates seem to be diverging from hospitalization rates and death rates. Nationwide, 300 to 400 Americans die each day of COVID, down significantly from previous peaks.

“People appear to be getting less severely ill with COVID in general,” Artenstein said. “So even if the percentage is lower, the absolute number of ill people goes up. That’s just statistics.”

There are many reasons why this could be, he said. For one, vaccines and boosters are safe and effective. While they don’t always prevent infection, they certainly keep people from getting as sick as they would have gotten without being vaccinated. Also, medical experts estimate that two-thirds of the population has been infected and carries some residual immunity.

The coronavirus is mutating, Artenstein said, and the version that’s out there now might just not be as deadly.

As of Wednesday Baystate — the region’s largest health care provider — had 103 people hospitalized. Of those, 82 were at Baystate Medical Center, three were at Baystate Franklin Medical Center in Greenfield, seven were at Baystate Wing Hospital in Palmer and 11 were at Baystate Noble Hospital in Westfield.

Two-thirds of those patients came into the hospital with some other complaint and tested positive.

“But for us, that doesn’t matter,” Artenstein said. “We still have to take all the precautions and infectious disease controls as if the person had come to hospital complaining of COVID.”

Rising infection rates also make it harder to staff the hospital, Artenstein said. Baystate said that as of Wednesday there are 241 employees out with COVID. The hospital has about 1,800 vacancies out of a total workforce of 13,000.

When it comes to precautions, Artenstein said people need to take a practical view, control what they can control and minimize risks. For example, Artenstein said he wears a mask when he’s indoors around strangers.

“A lot of people, a lot of them close together without masks,” he said.

He contrasted that with walking a dog or visiting a golf course or outdoor restaurant with open-air tables separated from each other.

“I feel much better about that than I did a year ago,” Artenstein said. “We still need to watch out for one another. That’s the only way public health works.”

He said people should get vaccinated. And those with their first booster should think strategically about getting a second booster. A study from Israel indicates that the second booster’s protection may wane after a few weeks. So timing it about two weeks prior to a big event or a vacation would be smart.

“What I’m not surprised about, frankly, is that our communities are exhausted with this,” he said. “It’s been so long now, and it’s been relentless.”

Material from the Associated Press was used in this report.

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