Kurt Schrader’s future in Congress was still on the line Wednesday, as still-partial returns showed fellow Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner mounting a robust challenge to the seven-term incumbent U.S. House member.
Preliminary returns as of Wednesday afternoon showed McLeod-Skinner with 61% of the vote compared to 38% for Schrader, the only other Democrat on the ballot.
However, with a printing error and Clackamas County elections officials’ poor performance delaying results from most voters in that populous county — home to nearly half of the 5th District’s Democrats — the result of the race may not be known until late this week at the earliest.
An estimated 85,000 Clackamas County ballots remained uncounted Wednesday, and county elections head Sherry Hall could offer no timetable for when her office would substantially complete tallying them.
Clackamas County voters account for 45% of registered Democrats in the 5th District.
Results from the 1,300 Democratic ballots Clackamas officials have managed to tally show Schrader far ahead of his opponent -- 57% to 42% -- in the county where he has lived and been elected to public office for decades. But that could change once tens of thousands more ballots cast there are tallied.
While Schrader easily outmatched McLeod-Skinner in fundraising, his challenger had been building momentum in recent months, gaining the support of several local Democratic parties in the district and snagging endorsements from some labor unions that formerly backed Schrader.
Running to Schrader’s political left, McLeod-Skinner blasted the incumbent for sometimes standing in the way of President Biden’s political agenda, citing votes he took on prescription drug pricing and pandemic relief.
McLeod-Skinner is an attorney who’s worked as an emergency response coordinator and city planner. While she lives just outside the district’s boundaries in Jefferson County, she’s arguably better known than Schrader in the central Oregon portion of the 5th District.
That’s because McLeod-Skinner has been on the congressional ballot before in the area, as she ran for Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District in 2018, and statewide for secretary of state in 2020.
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Until last year’s redistricting plan took effect, Bend was not part of the 5th District, meaning Schrader doesn’t enjoy the same benefits an incumbent usually does in terms of name-recognition. Previously, the district did not cross the Cascades; instead, it took in portions of the Oregon coast.
But much of the district, including the parts in Clackamas County where Schrader lives, remained. A former large animal veterinarian and state lawmaker, Schrader has deep ties to the Willamette Valley’s agricultural and business communities, leaders of which have largely stayed in his camp.
There were signs in recent weeks that McLeod-Skinner was gaining momentum. The Cook Political Report, citing unnamed sources, reported Thursday that internal polls showed McLeod-Skinner leading Schrader, though more precise poll information was not released, meaning the two candidates could have been within the margin of error.
If Schrader loses, it would be the first time since 1980 that an incumbent member of Oregon’s congressional delegation lost a primary. That year, Ron Wyden defeated fellow Democrat Bob Duncan to win the primary in the 3rd District. Wyden won the general election and served in the House until 1996, when he was elected to the Senate.
In the Republican primary for the 5th District, Lori Chavez-DeRemer won the five-candidate field with 42% of the vote. Jimmy Crumpacker was in second place with 31% of the vote. Crumpacker and Chavez-DeRemer were the only two candidates to report a significant amount of fundraising.
With registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by around 25,000 in the 5th District, the winner of the Republican nomination will have a built-in disadvantage heading into the general election.
The Republican race in the district was largely quiet, although Crumpacker and Chavez-DeRemer sparred in a series of negative ads in the final weeks leading up to the election, with both candidates questioning the other’s conservative credentials.
In a statement Tuesday, Chavez-DeRemer called herself “humbled and grateful” and said, “The voters wanted someone with a proven track record of getting things done to represent them in Congress. ... As your Republican nominee, I will fight against the radical left and bring common-sense policies back to Washington D.C. We will carry this tremendous momentum to the general election and flip this seat.”
-- Chris Lehman clehman@oregonian.com @capitolcurrents
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