Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 1 odds, best bet: Can Golden State slow down Luka Doncic?

Heading into the playoffs, a lot of people thought that if the Warriors could just get healthy they could make a run. Now they are just four wins away from another trip to the NBA Finals for the core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. 

Golden State eliminated Memphis, which was tabbed the up-and-coming team in the Western Conference this season. Perhaps that title should belong to Dallas though. Luka Doncic is awesome, but he is still young enough to fit the bill. What is his ceiling, really?

The Warriors get a slight advantage after winning their series in six games, earning an extra day off. That can only help them, as will playing at the Chase Center. It is not as wild as Oracle Arena used to be, but it can only help.

Dallas got the better of the Warriors during the regular season, winning the season series 3-1. The winning team covered in every game, but no spread was as big as the five points we are seeing in the series opener. That's kind of interesting. 

These teams have not seen each other in more than more months, and a lot has changed. 

Game Info

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, May 18, 2022
9:00 PM ET
Chase Center, San Francisco, California
TNT

Betting Odds

Spread: Mavericks +5 (-110), Warriors -5 (-110)
Total: 214.5
Moneyline: Mavericks +175, Warriors -210

Best Bet

Golden State -5

For all of the Mavs' road games in the last round against Phoenix, the line was -6 or -6.5 so we are not much off of that for this series opener. That makes sense to me. 

I know the Suns finished well ahead of Golden State during the regular season, but now that they are healthy, the Warriors are probably the better team. That is not just because they are still alive in the playoffs and Phoenix isn't, either. 

Dallas counters the experience of Golden State with Luka, who with Giannis Antetokounmpo out is now the most dominant force left in the playoffs. He was fantastic against the Suns, but the Warriors have the better defensive personnel to try and stymie him. Klay, Draymond, Andrew Wiggins and even rooking Jonathan Kuminga should all be able to make it difficult for him. Phoenix might have played too big, and it killed the team defensively.

The Warriors play more small ball with Green in the middle, and that strategy, plus their personnel, makes it a lot easier to try and match up with Luka more effectively. The key to beating Dallas is doing what you can to limit his efficiency. It is never a complete shutdown.

Golden State is also a tougher matchup for the Mavericks because of the way it shoots the three. Steph might be slowing a little, but there is no shooter like him in the NBA for creativity and distance. There is just nothing you can do when he takes a 35-footer and makes it. Plus Golden State has three other players shooting 39%+ from behind the arc in the playoffs in Thompson, Jordan Poole and Wiggins. Curry does it a little differently than a player like Doncic, but he still has a ton of gravity and can create for others. 

One factor that I am having a hard time wrapping my head around heading into the series is coaching. Warriors coach Steve Kerr has as much championship pedigree on the court and off as anyone, but he has been dealing with COVID. He had to leave the team in the middle of the Grizzlies series, but by then a lot of the game planning was already done. Perhaps his absence is more felt in this series. I say just perhaps though. I might be overthinking it. 

Look for Game 1 to be a chance for the Warriors to show off some depth, and being at home they should be able to get some of their secondary players like Wiggins and Poole going. They are going to need those guys, plus their big three to control the game against a Mavericks team that is super confident right now. 

I like the Warriors to win the opener by eight. That gets us the cover, but it might feel a little tight late.