Here are 5 wise wagers for May 17 games
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Tuesday plays host to a whopping 18 MLB games, creating tons of betting options to sift through. Here are three that stand out across the games set to take place Tuesday evening.
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Guardians vs. Reds
The wager: Guardians minus 1.5 runs
Line: +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Zach Plesac has had a tough go of late, facing the White Sox (twice), Padres and Angels in his most recent starts. But he’ll get a nice break on Tuesday vs. the Reds, who scored one run over their last 18 innings.
Cincinnati may be just outside the top 10 in ISO against right-handed pitching, but they’re also just outside the bottom 10 in OPS and wOBA against righties.
Connor Overton, on the other hand, is dealing with the inverse of Plesac. Although he held down the Rockies at Coors in his first 2022 start, he’s only faced the Pirates since. The Guardians are significantly tougher on right-handers than either of those teams. Cleveland leads in OPS against righties, is second in wOBA and top 10 in ISO.
Also, Overton has one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him. Only Colorado’s 5.03 bullpen ERA is higher than Cincy’s (4.93). When turning the focus to bullpen FIP, it’s the same one-two punch with the worst marks in the game.
Yankees at Orioles
The wager: Giancarlo Stanton over 1.5 total bases
Line: +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
There are a lot of ways to attack Spenser Watkins on Tuesday. Stanton is the play because he’s at even money, but Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases is a legitimate option at -125, too. Backing the Yankees to score six or more runs (+110) after they did so in two out of their last three games vs. Baltimore is also an option.
Watkins has had some solid outings, but he just got shellacked by a St. Louis lineup not known for hitting right-handed pitching well. The Baltimore righty has given up eight doubles and four home runs to right-handed hitters (Stanton is +370 to homer and Judge is +330), leading to their whopping .461 wOBA against him.
Stanton and Judge both have wOBAs north of .400 and ISOs floating around .300 against righties. They also have hard-contact rates over 40% against righties. If you’re going for just one play, take Stanton, but both he and Judge are worthwhile options against Watkins.
Mariners at Blue Jays
The wager: Mariners money line
Line: +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
After only surrendering one walk through his first three starts of 2022 (16 2/3 innings), Logan Gilbert has walked three-plus in each of his last four outings. While he’s skirted some of those free passes, his control issues led to rough performances in his last two starts.
Luckily for Gilbert, the Jays are free-swinging. Only the White Sox (5.5%) have a lower walk rate than Toronto (6.6%). More importantly, the Jays are middling against right-handers when looking at their OPS and wOBA.
Also, as much as Gilbert has struggled in his last two starts, José Berríos has been worse. The Jays have dropped his last two outings, during which he’s given up a total of 11 runs. The Mariners may not be pulverizing right-handed pitching right now, but they’re just outside the top 10 in OPS and wOBA against righties.
Angels at Rangers
The wager: Anthony Rendon over 1.5 total bases
Line: +100 (bet $100 to win $105)
All eyes will be on Reid Detmers early, so it only makes sense to completely shift our focus elsewhere and look at an L.A. hitter -- especially against a lefty. The Angels crush right-handed pitching, but left-handers have given them trouble here and there.
However, there are always exceptions to the rule. In this case, it’s Rendon. The L.A. third baseman has a .257 ISO and .377 wOBA against left-handed pitching to start the season. Although he’s yet to hit a double off of a lefty in 2022, three of his four home runs have come off left-handed pitchers (putting his home run prop in play at +320). That production has resulted in a 37.5% home-run-to-fly-ball rate from Rendon, to go with his 33.3% line-drive rate.
Most important of all, Rendon has a 40% hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching. That rate is only a tick higher than his career average, so it’s sustainable. Also, his 6.7% soft-contact rate is further confirmation Rendon doesn’t get cheated against lefties.
Rockies vs. Giants
The wager: C.J. Cron over 1.5 total bases and Rockies over 2.5 run
Line: +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
It’s been a long time since Alex Cobb pitched at Coors Field. His lone start in Colorado came in 2013, during which he gave up three home runs. Now, that was a completely different lineup than the one he held to one run over five innings on May 11. But, that says a lot about Cron’s success against the San Francisco right-hander.
Cron only has 18 plate appearances against Cobb, which isn’t a huge sample size. But, he does have five hits in those plate appearances -- three being home runs and one a double. Now Cron gets a chance against Cobb at Coors, where he has a 35.6 line-drive rate and a 30.5% home-run-to-fly-ball rate (putting his home run prop in play at +310).
The reason this is a Same Game Parlay pick: Cron is actually -130 to log over 1.5 total bases. With the way Colorado hits at home and how some of the other Rockies have hit Cobb in the past, backing them to log three runs when they’re -120 to go over 4.5 runs straight-up is a safe move. Of course, if you don’t mind laying the juice and solely want to back Cron, he’s the driving force behind this pick.
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