Can Brady Singer’s Changeup Save His Career as a Starter?

The Kansas City Royals' 2018 MLB Draft class has largely produced underwhelming results thus far. Brady Singer, who was given the short end of the stick this season, somehow has perhaps the most impressive body of work from that group.

Heading into the year, Singer had 192-2/3 innings under his belt as a starter. Across 39 starts, he posted a 4.62 ERA with a 4.05 FIP and an 8.97 K/9 — all good for 3.0 fWAR during that stretch. He did all of that while relying on two primary pitches: a sinker and a slider. The righty out of the University of Florida "experimented" with a changeup, although the pitch never manifested itself much (1.6% usage in 2021). 

After a disappointing spring training slate that saw him lose a battle for the final spot in the Royals' rotation, Singer came out of the bullpen to begin the season. In 5-2/3 innings of work, he gave up seven hits and four runs before being sent down to Triple-A Omaha. There, Singer was stretched back out as a starter and posted a 3.29 ERA across 13-2/3 innings. With a Tuesday doubleheader on the horizon, the Royals are calling him back up and he'll start the second game of the day.

If Singer relies solely on his fastball-slider combination upon his reentry into the big league club, he could be in for a troublesome experience. He's not unplayable in the rotation as-is, but the Royals want to see growth from him. He's a former first-round pick from a premier program, not a Rule 5 selection who just-so-happens to have panned out to a minor degree. Kansas City has high expectations for Singer, and he needs to show improvement now that he's back.

If he can utilize the changeup (much) more often, it could save his career as a starter.

Luckily for both the team and Singer, the changeup showed signs of life and usage in Omaha. There isn't pitch-tracking data for the offering from the minors, but there are positive reviews and taped examples that will have to suffice. From an article by Alec Lewis of The Athletic late last week:

As for the changeup, Gibson added: “He threw a couple (last week) in the 85-87 mph range, which has been good. He got swings and misses on it. A groundball on one. It’s all about the feel. If you don’t feel it, it’s hard to throw it. He’s starting to feel this thing, and see how he can adjust his finger pressure and the way he wants to deaden the ball to slow it up. As he throws more and more, he’s going to gain more and more feel for it. It was fun to watch him go about it without any reservation.”

Singer's usage rate doesn't have to be anything insane moving forward, but getting it closer to 10-15% could be what gives him more deception and consistency. It's extremely difficult to thrive on just two pitches if you're a starter. It's no surprise that Singer's second season in The Bigs was worse than his first — teams caught on to him. Sure, bad luck was involved as well (aforementioned FIP), but Singer doesn't have his primary pitches mastered with world-class precision. He needs a tertiary pitch.

Much like with implementation, Singer's changeup doesn't have to be anything crazy in terms of proficiency. Even if it's a slightly below-average offering this year, using it now can pave the way for greater success in the future. With that attempt to experiment should come grace from the Royals, too, as Singer tries to do something he may not be extremely comfortable with.

Singer has gotten to this point by doing what he knows (and knows relatively well). The next step for him, if he wants to evolve into more than a starter on the fringe of being demoted to the bullpen, is using the changeup and getting a legitimate feel for it. He can't work on it outside of games and then not throw it once he's on the mound in a real situation. It may not always be pretty — it won't always be pretty — but Singer seems to have a better understanding of the assignment this time around. It's necessary if he wants to stick.