Special Report

COVID-19: How Cases in the Lynchburg, VA Metro Area Compare to Other Major Metros

Evan Comen

Published: May 17, 2022 1:30 am

The U.S. reported over 562,000 new cases of coronavirus over the seven days ending May 15, bringing the total count to more than 81.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 991,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 22.7 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 18.2 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While new data shows that the risk of contracting COVID-19 is high in almost every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks and superspreader events. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of COVID-19 grew at an average rate of 26.4 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 23.3% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.

The Lynchburg, VA metro area consists of the city of Lynchburg, Bedford County, Campbell County, and two other counties. As of May 15, there were 23,289.7 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 Lynchburg residents, 7.6% lower than the national rate. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 25,214.1 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

The incidence of coronavirus cases depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Lynchburg metro area, Lynchburg city has the highest incidence of COVID-19 cases. As of May 15, there were 24,576.4 cases per 100,000 residents in Lynchburg city, the most of any county in Lynchburg, yet not too far from the county with the lowest incidence. In Bedford County, there were 21,967.2 cases per 100,000 residents — the least of any county in Lynchburg.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In the Lynchburg metro area, unemployment peaked at 10.6% in April 2020. As of November 2021, the metro area’s unemployment rate was 3.6%.

To determine how the incidence of COVID-19 in the Lynchburg, VA metro area compares to the rest of the country, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked metro areas based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents.To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Virginia where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).