Oregon Ballot Returns So Far: Older Voters Are Showing Up

Enthusiasm is also greater outside of the metro area than in the state’s three most populous counties.

I DISSENT: A Portland voter at a get-out-the-vote rally in 2020. (Chris Nesseth)
By Nigel Jaquiss

With election day upon us, the story of the 2022 primary continues to be a lack of excitement on the part of voters.

With a partial count of ballots received on Monday, figures released by the secretary of state show the statewide percentage of ballots returned is 18.1%. Overall, Republicans (24.8%) and Democrats (24.6%) are voting at a similar rate, while unaffiliated voters, who are shut out of party primaries but can vote in nonpartisan contests, are barely bothering to open their ballots (7.3%).

Some of the bluer counties are seeing even lower turnout, including Multnomah County at 16.5%, Lane County at 16.7% and Washington County at 16.8%. (In Clackamas County, which announced earlier that its ballots had been misprinted, participation is even lower: 15.9%).

It’s hard to know how low turnout will affect the top of the ticket. In the GOP primary, the presence of a handful of relatively equally financed candidates for governor with some name recognition makes almost any outcome possible, although former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R-Canby) seems to have gained in recent polls.

In the Democratic race for governor, former House Speaker Tina Kotek (D-Portland) is running to the left of her main challenger, State Treasurer Tobias Read. The only recent publicly released polling results showed Kotek with a 5-point lead but most voters undecided.

There are some significant differences in turnout among Democrats from county to county. In Deschutes County, for instance, more than 27% of Democrats have turned in their ballots, while in Multnomah County, just 21.8% of Democrats have cast ballots. That, and an older, more rural electorate, may help Read narrow Kotek’s advantage.

The people who have voted, as is usually the case in a primary, are older: 79.4% of the 500,000 voters who have cast ballots are 50 or older. That’s a pretty big skew, considering that only 49.2% of registered voters are 50 or above.

Here’s the breakdown of voters by age, drawn from a Democratic Party of Oregon analysis circulated today of all ballots cast through Friday.

Age of voters casing ballots through May 13


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