If you're like me, you probably don't enjoy dealing with insurance companies. Buying insurance can be complicated, and making a claim can be both frustrating and incredibly time-consuming in some circumstances. Innovative companies that can successfully improve the whole experience would be in line for potentially big rewards. Lemonade (LMND 8.23%) is an innovative insurance company using artificial intelligence (AI) to create that improvement.
So far, it has been a bumpy ride, but the company is making substantial progress and growing quickly. Its stock has fallen 87% from its all-time high amid persistent financial net losses and the broader tech sell-off, but one Wall Street firm has some confidence in its ability to bounce back and is betting the stock could soar by 83% from here.
Here's why investors should pay close attention to Lemonade's improving business, not just its collapsed stock price.
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Consumers love Lemonade
The customer experience is a focus point for Lemonade. That's why most customer interactions are done through the company's AI-powered online bot, Maya. It can provide an insurance quote in less than 90 seconds and pay out a claim in just three minutes -- all without human intervention (in most cases).
The unique experience has led many consumers to switch to Lemonade from much larger insurers. About 19% of Lemonade customers have come from Allstate, and another 10% have migrated from Berkshire Hathaway's Geico, to name just a couple of examples.
Lemonade's first-quarter 2022 earnings report, released on May 9, revealed an all-time-high 1.5 million customers, representing 37% year-over-year growth.
Lemonade is also seeing consistent growth in premiums per customer. The company says this is attributable to more people holding multiple policies, and this will likely continue to grow as the company expands the number of insurance markets it operates in.
A rapidly growing opportunity
2021 was a big year for Lemonade because it grew its product line to five with the addition of car insurance. It complements the company's existing renters, homeowners, pet, and term life insurance products, covering another big piece of most consumers' needs.
Car insurance is expected to be a $316 billion market in the U.S. in 2022, and estimates suggest over 198 million people have an existing policy. It's an enormous addressable opportunity for Lemonade, and to speed up its market penetration, the company is working to acquire artificial intelligence-powered insurance broker Metromile (MILE). The deal should be finalized in the second quarter of 2022.
Lemonade anticipates it will benefit from Metromile's 10 years of industry experience and 3 billion miles of driver data, which can be used to price insurance policies more accurately. Plus, Metromile holds 49 state licenses that Lemonade will absorb as part of the deal.
Wall Street is on board
Lemonade has some work to do to regain investors' trust, given its stock has declined by 87% from its all-time high. The company's struggle to turn its positive operating momentum into a profit is among the main concerns.
Lemonade had $419 million in in-force premiums in Q1 2022, up 66% from the year-ago quarter. In-force premiums are effectively the total amount of annual premiums currently held by customers, so this is a great number with strong growth. But over the last 12 months, the company has lost an eye-watering $267 million. Entering new markets like car insurance is a costly exercise, and it will take time to scale up, but once it does, the idea is to generate revenue that far exceeds fixed costs, which should shrink net losses significantly.
Wall Street firm JMP Securities thinks Lemonade stock could jump to $40 a share from the $21.50 it trades at today, representing an upside of 83%. It might not seem like an ambitious call, given the stock once traded above $160, but if Lemonade can improve its financial picture, JMP's price target might even be conservative in the long term.
