It takes a about a month of sample size data for the NASCAR power rankings to really reflect something tangible. So much of the early postings this season reflect the end of last year as much as the start to 2024, a campaign that also began with two straight super speedway races at Daytona and Atlanta.
Las Vegas last weekend was the first downforce race and this weekend at Phoenix is the first short track race. The sample sizes are starting to come into focus. Check back in the weeks to come to see how a larger sample size of data influences the power rankings.
20. John Hunter Nemechek
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The No. 42 team is finishing races. So even if the results do not reflect any sort of strife, it’s something to build on in their first season together. Nemechek also won Saturday’s Xfinity Series race.
19. Christopher Bell
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Three of Christopher Bell’s last four Cup Series starts have featured spins, crashes and poor finishes. The luck will come back around and they should challenge for the championship. But it’s been a slog to start.
18. Alex Bowman
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A two-tire call earlier in the race netted the No. 48 some stage points but Alex Bowman never seemed to have the speed to challenge for a top-10 and finished 18th. But still, he’s finishing races and is 16 points to the good early in the playoff picture.
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17. Noah Gragson
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Sunday’s sixth place run at Las Vegas was his best overall effort behind the wheel of a Cup Series car. He still has a long way to go to overcome a 35 point penalty stemming from Atlanta but it gets easier if this speed is for real.
Related: Noah Gragson has confidence, comfort to start 2024
16. Erik Jones
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With two top-15s over the first three races, the No. 43 has money in the bank in terms of a five point playoff spot lead and reasons for optimism moving forward. They tested at Phoenix in December so Jones has some idea of what this new rules package will race like too.
15. Chris Buescher
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The No. 17 never had a chance to race on Sunday suffering the loose wheel early but showed top-10 speed. Their 11.7 qualifying effort shows there is performance in the car to be unlocked.
14. Corey Lajoie
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On one hand, running inside the top-15 at a downforce track was cause for optimism for Spire Motorsports but getting crashed twice by teammate Carson Hocevar made it a moot development at Las Vegas.
13 Daniel Suarez
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Sunday at Las Vegas was an example of the kind of things crew chief Matt Swiderski can do now that they already have a win in the bank. The No. 99 stayed out in the hopes of catching a caution and led 15 laps. It didn’t work out but they can do that now.
12. Joey Logano
The No. 22 won a second pole in three races and finally finished a race this season, a top-10 at that, but still finds himself in a bit of a points hole at 20 points out of a playoff spot.
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11. Chase Elliott
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In a way, this seems pretty low but the 2020 champions are still bogged down by last year. They finished 12th on Sunday, after running top-10 most of the day, which still feels like an improvement from where they have been in a NextGen at Las Vegas. They’re seventh in points with a playoff point. It’s a foundation.
10. Martin Truex Jr.
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There hasn’t been a race yet where Truex has flexed his muscle but he did finish seventh on Sunday and has maximized the first three races to be currently scored third in the championship standings. The 2017 Cup Series champion is just silently going about his business.
9. Ty Gibbs
Ty Gibbs and the No. 54 team showed a lot of resiliency on Sunday overcoming a transmission gremlin and a pit road issue to still score a top-5. It’s a continuation of his second half speed that might lead to expectations of a playoff run in his second season.
8. Bubba Wallace
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Entering the weekend at Las Vegas, Bubba Wallace was the only driver to have secured top-10s in both opening races but suffered a stuck left front lug nut that needed to be cut off and finished laps off the pace. But still, he showed top-10 speed again
Related: Stay up to date on the latest NASCAR Cup Series standings
7. Tyler Reddick
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Like everyone else in the sport, Tyler Reddick is still waiting for more data over the course of the season, especially for Toyotas with its new Camry XLE body style. Reddick finished second at Vegas but seemed to be faster than race winner Larson if not for the dirty air.
Related: Christopher Bell says NASCAR has ‘gutless engines’ as drivers want more horsepower
6. Ross Chastain
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Ross Chastain has sped three weeks ago and he’s rightfully mad at himself over it. But the Trackhouse No. 1 showed good speed in the first downforce race of the season and is fifth in the standings.
5. Denny Hamlin
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Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 had speed over the weekend at Vegas but pit stops were a little too inconsistent to maintain track position. A P8 continues a solid start to his season that has him P10 in the standings.
4. Kyle Busch
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Rowdy might have had a shot to challenge Kyle Larson for the win at Las Vegas if not for a late penalty for pitting outside the box. But still, it’s a good sign of speed for Richard Childress Racing if Busch and company can take advantage of it more frequently.
3. Ryan Blaney
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The defending champion returns to the site of his most important triumph. Blaney has been especially good at Phoenix in a NextGen with three straight runner-ups and a fourth-place but his run of success dates back to the previous car where he had four other top-10s since 2019. The No. 12 also tested at Phoenix in December so he should be competitive again.
2. Kyle Larson
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The 2021 Cup Series champions are good everywhere, of course, but Vegas might be their best track with three wins, five finishes of first or second and 602 laps led.
1. William Byron
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William Byron continues to set the standard each week. If not for the trash bag and beer can that ruined their day, they surely would have led more than the 14 laps over the first 30 en route to another top-10. His 9.3 average finish is still best in the division.
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.