Pennsylvania’s primary election on Tuesday features plenty of uncontested races, but the ones worthy of attention are offering a good bit of political intrigue and excitement.
At the top of the list are primary races for U.S. Senate and governor, except in the Democratic primary for governor where state Attorney General Josh Shapiro is unopposed.
There are also a few interesting primary battles in U.S. House districts, including the Democratic one in the 10th Congressional District to decide which candidate will challenge potentially vulnerable Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, who has been subpoenaed by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
And, as always, there is plenty of drama with legislative races in central Pennsylvania.
Here’s a quick look at the races that should be closely watched:
U.S. SENATE
This is one is a no-brainer on our hot list for anyone paying attention since incumbent U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Lehigh County, announced in October 2020 that he would not seek re-election.
The open seat, that could determine control of the Senate, offers two of the most high-profile Senate primary races in the country. Republicans hope to nominate someone who can hold on to Toomey’s seat in the 50-50 Senate, while Democrats are salivating at the chance to possibly turn the seat blue.
Republicans
TV celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, but, according to polling, has not been able to break away from former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick or conservative commentator Kathy Barnette.
Oz has been dogged by concerns over his dual Turkish citizenship, ties to Hollywood and previous statements supporting red flag gun laws and abortion rights, while McCormick has been accused of being too friendly with China in his former hedge fund role.
Both McCormick and Oz have also been hit with “carpetbagger” charges, as both only moved back to Pennsylvania to run for the Senate seat.
As Oz and McCormick have targeted each other, Barnette has been surging in recent weeks to the point that Republican groups worried she’ll be a liability in the fall have begun targeting her in ads.
After holding a rally for Oz in Westmoreland County on May 6, Trump issued a statement last week saying Barnette “will never be able to win the General Election against the Radical Left Democrats,” but pledging his support for her nonetheless if she does win the primary.
What to look for: Can Barnette keep her late momentum going through the primary and pull out a surprising victory? Will Trump’s endorsement be enough to push Oz to a win? Or, can McCormick outpace both?
Democrats
For a few months the Democratic primary for the Senate seat was basically between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta.
Fetterman, however, has seemingly pulled away while Lamb and Kenyatta have faded, if the polling numbers are accurate.
In the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll, Fetterman held a 53 percent to 14 percent over Lamb with Kenyatta a distant third at 4 percent.
Fetterman’s rise has frustrated the Democratic establishment, which has thrown its support behind Lamb because the conventional wisdom is the moderate western Pennsylvania Democrat would be the more viable statewide candidate in the fall as opposed to the more left-leaning Fetterman.
“He just has made this calculation … that he doesn’t need the party,” Dickinson College associate professor of political science Sarah Niebler said of Fetterman.
Over the weekend, though, Fetterman said he was hospitalized after suffering a stroke caused by a blood clot near his heart. While the lieutenant governor said doctors assured him of a full recovery, it remains to be seen how Fetterman’s health will affect voters’ actions, if at all.
What to look for: Will voters look past Fetterman’s health problems and send him to an easy primary victory or will Lamb pull a ‘Tuesday surprise’ and snatch away the nomination?
GOVERNOR
While Shapiro has sat back building an enormous campaign war chest, a full-scale civil war has erupted among Republicans, who now seem terrified that state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who has continued to baselessly question the results of the 2020 presidential election results in Pennsylvania, will win on Tuesday.
The fear is that scenario and Mastriano’s brand of ultra-conservatism will torpedo the GOP’s chance of winning in November.
Those fears culminated late last week when state Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman dropped out of the race and threw his support behind former U.S. Rep. and former Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta, who’s been running second to Mastriano in most polling.
Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart, who was running far back of leading candidates, dropped out on Friday and also endorsed Barletta.
Most observers, though, questioned how effective this strategy would be, especially coming with less than a week to go before the primary election.
“It does feel a bit late for Corman and the establishment Republicans to say, ‘This person might be able to win statewide. What do we do?’” said Niebler.
Then, on Saturday, Mastriano received a late endorsement from Trump, which wasn’t surprising considering Mastriano’s support of the former president and their shared ideologies.
A Shapiro ad attacking Mastriano even fueled charges from Republicans that it was actually an underhanded attempt by the Democrat to have Mastriano elected because Shapiro considers him to be the weakest potential challenger in the general election.
Those attacks from fellow Republicans might ultimately help Mastriano among his hardcore base, Niebler said. “It just plays into the narrative of him versus the world,” she said.
What to look for: Can Barletta, former Delaware County Commissioner Dave White or former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain capture the nomination over Mastriano, handing Trump a primary defeat?
10th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Two Democrats are vying for the chance to challenge Perry in November in this central Pennsylvania district that tilts Republican but could offer some hope for Democrats mainly because of Perry’s connections to the Trump administration’s attempt to try and overturn the 2020 election results.
Perry, 59, has refused to testify before the House Jan. 6th Select Committee investigating the attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Last week, the committee revealed that it had subpoenaed several GOP House members, including Perry. Before that, Politico reported that Perry was involved in discussions with White House staff members trying to coordinate a plan to overturn the election.
Former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, a Democrat who ran against Perry in 2020 and was widely seen as his top political threat, decided not to enter the race in February, citing the newly drawn Congressional district lines.
Now it’s Harrisburg City Councilmember Shamaine Daniels, a 43-year-old Dauphin County resident, and 62-year-old Cumberland County resident Rick Coplen, a Carlisle Area school board member and retired Army officer, who are offering Democratic voters two interesting options.
Niebler, who lives in the district, said it appears as if both candidates are relying on their bases to come out.
“I’ve seen remarkably little campaigning here,” she said. “There’s really just been very little.”
What to look for: Will Democratic voters pick Daniels, the younger, up-and-coming woman of color championing immigration reform and protecting women’s reproductive rights to lead the charge against Perry in the fall, or will they go with Coplen, the older, white male West Point graduate, who has stressed supporting veterans, education, agriculture and improving infrastructure?
12th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
This southwest Pennsylvania district that includes Pittsburgh is all about intra-party squabbling on because the Democratic primary essential serves as the general election in this heavily blue area.
The dynamic of this race is similar to the 10th District race in that it pits a progressive, young, Black woman — state Rep. Summer Lee — against a more centrist Democrat, attorney Steve Irwin, who is an older white man that has enjoyed the support of the Allegheny County Democratic establishment.
Lee has been the target of ads questioning her support for President Joe Biden and alleging that she is anti-Israel, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Last week, Lee welcomed Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist, to a Pittsburgh rally, where he said Lee would work with him to raise the minimum wage, make college tuition free, tax corporations more and fight for Medicare for All, the Tribune-Review reported.
What to look for: Will the progressive, female candidate of color, who’s been leading in polls, win the primary or can the Democratic establishment push its white, male candidate over the line?
STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES
Several contested races in Cumberland, Dauphin and Perry counties – five for state House seats and one for the state Senate – bear watching in Tuesday’s primary.
In the race for the Republican nomination in a newly created 34th Senate seat representing parts of all three counties are Greg Rothman, who has served in the state House for four two-year terms, and Cumberland Valley School Board member and former Hampden Township manager Mike Gossert.
Meanwhile, in the 86th state House District, there’s a contest for the Republican nomination between two-term incumbent Johnathan Hershey of Juniata County and one-term incumbent Perry Stambaugh of Perry County. This redrawn district leans heavily Republican with Perry County comprising more than 70 percent of it.
The 103rd state House District features contests on the Democratic and Republican tickets just as for the first time, the district encompasses communities on both shores of the Susquehanna River.
On the Democratic side, five-term incumbent Patty Kim of Harrisburg will try to fend off a challenge from community advocate Heather MacDonald of Camp Hill. On the Republican side, voters will choose between former Harrisburg police officer Jennie Jenkins-Dallas and former Cumberland County prothonotary David Buell.
Challenging for the Democratic nomination for the 105th House District seat are citizen activist Eric Epstein, who has become known as a watchdog over state government and Three Mile Island, and Susquehanna Township Commissioner Justin Fleming, no stranger himself to state government having worked in several state agency press offices and done work for nonprofits advocating for children and mental health services.
In the hunt for the GOP nomination for open 87th state House District seat that Rothman is vacating are Lower Allen Township Commissioner and state Senate staffer Thomas Kutz who is taking on businessman Eric Clancy from Upper Allen Township.
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